England vs South Africa prediction, lineups, odds and rugby betting tips
England vs South Africa prediction, lineups, team news and betting tips from oddschecker’s Dan Till for the Rugby World Cup semi-final
In a rematch of the 2019 World Cup final, England face world champions South Africa on Saturday evening in Paris, with a place in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final up for grabs.
Four years ago England were beaten by a record margin for a final and many are predicting a similarly tough evening in Paris with the world champions sniffing a record fourth title.
England arrived in this tournament with many fans feeling they may struggle to get out of the pool stage, but they enter this semi-final as the only unbeaten side left in the tournament. However, they know this weekend will be by far their toughest assignment.
Rugby World Cup Semi-Final Predictions
It’s hard not to talk about Saturday’s semi-final without mentioning the 2019 final, a day in Yokohama most England fans would rather forget.
Dan Cole was unexpectedly thrust into the fray just minutes into that game and endured a torrid time as the Boks deployed their “Bomb Squad” to tear the English scrum to pieces. The Tigers veteran, now 36, starts on Saturday. If he can hold up his side of the scrum it could force a re-think of some of the South African gameplan.
Another key area will be the goal kickers. Manie Libbok has generally struggled at this tournament from the tee, while Owen Farrell had a superb day with the boot with Fiji and will need to take every point on offer if England are to pull off an upset.
If England can get some kind of parity in the forwards then they have a puncher's chance in this game, but the Springboks have so much firepower across the pitch it's tough not to see them making their fourth final.
England vs South Africa Prediction
In the last five Rugby World Cups the average winning margin in the semi-finals is 10 points, with just one win coming by 20 or more points (South Africa v Argentina in 2007).
That game in 2007 also produced the most points of any semi-final since 2003 (50 points), where the average total points across the last 10 semi-finals is 32.
Given those statistics which show World Cup semi-finals are generally tight affairs I’d be looking at the handicap market where England +13 is available at a best price of 11/10.
England vs South Africa Rugby Odds
England are currently best priced 5/1 on Paddy Power to win on Saturday, while the Boks are heavy favourites (1/5 on Sky Bet). The draw pays at 33/1.
England vs South Africa Lineups
England Lineup: Steward, May, Marchant, Tuilagi, Daly; Farrell (c), Mitchell, Genge, George, Cole, Itoje, Martin, Lawes, Curry, Earl.
South Africa Lineup: Willemse Arendse, Kriel, De Allende, Kolbe Libbok, Reinach Kitshoff, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth, Mostert, Kolisi (c), Du Toit, Vermeulen.
England vs England Team News
Freddie Steward returns at full-back for England after being replaced by Marcus Smith for the quarter-final with Fiji, Smith drops out of the 23 entirely after failing a HIA.
In the second row George Martin replaces his Leicester Tigers teammate Ollie Chessum who drops to the bench. While Ellis Genge also drops to the bench, with Joe Marler coming in at loosehead prop.
13 of England’s matchday 23 took part in the 2019 World Cup final in Japan against South Africa.
South Africa haven’t made any changes to the 23 which beat France in the quarter-final last weekend - Cobus Reinach continues at scrum-half in place of Faf De Klerk and once again partners fly-half with Manie Libbok.
Siya Kolisi lines up alongside Pieter-Steph du Toit and Duane Vermeulen for the 15th time at test level in the same back-row that dashed England’s World Cup dreams four years ago
Just like England, South Africa have 13 survivors from that famous night in Yokohama in 2019.
England vs South Africa Rugby Betting Tips
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