EPCR Challenge Cup Final 2023: Toulon to prove too strong for Warriors

The Grand Final of the EPCR Challenge Cup is set to take place at 8pm on Friday night in Dublin, as surprise package Glasgow Warriors take on rugby royalty in Toulon. This game is seen as a bit of a curtain raiser on finals weekend for the Champions Cup final taking place on Saturday, but is still a prestigious game in its own right and a trophy both clubs will be itching to win 

The French side are odds-on across the board and here we detail how we see the game, live on BT Sport, panning out. We've even thrown in two recommended bets for good measure...There

Both of these sides have made it to the final hurdle before only to falter, with Glasgow losing out in 2015 and Toulon on a wretched run of four final appearances since 2010 and no success. One thing is for certain then, there will be a new name on the trophy, and by all metrics it really should be that of Toulon.

The big thing in the French side's favour, alongside the fact they simply have better personnel, is their mean defence. Conceding an average of just over 14 points per game in this competition means they have one of the toughest defences to crack in Europe and although Glasgow have some firepower to trouble them, it would be a surprise to see the floodgates open in such a high stakes game.

Their semi-final win, 23-0 over Benetton, was arguably their most impressive of the campaign and with the defensive machine now seeming to be at its best, they will take all the beating. Competition top scorer Dan Biggar will lead them around the park from fly-half and they should have enough to win the trophy in what could be a real arm wrestle of a game.

EPCR Challenge Cup Final Tips:

Both tips are staying on a similar theme for this one, with a disappointing lack of player props markets being offered by betting sites. As outlined in the introduction, this should be a tough game but it is one we think Toulon have a clear edge in.

There is a whiff of an immoveable object meeting an irresistible force in this match with Glasgow bringing an attack that has sparkled in this competition, particularly in the knock-out rounds, while Toulon's defence just gets tighter and tighter. We can't see the French outfit keeping the Warriors to zero like they did in the semi-final, but we also cannot see Glasgow penetrating Toulon very often.

Toulon quite simply play in a better league than their counterparts and bringing the fourth best defence from the Top-14 to the EPCR Challenge Cup is a serious proposition. They are no mugs with the ball, however, and we think they can cover the 6 point start they are giving away. SpreadEx are marginally the best price on this selection, but a range of other bookies are offering a shade under evens which we will be taking as our main bet..

Toulon to win by 8-14 points

Wrapping things up, although we have been eulogising about Toulon's defence, they are not the type to completely cut loose once a game is won. The 19/20 on offer for the French favourites to be winning both at half-time and full-time was another tempting punt, but at bigger odds we will be delving into the winning margin market and back Toulon to win by 8-14 points.

There are a multitude of ways this bet could land, with the first being a tight affair throughout that Toulon have the upper hand throughout and eventually stretch out to a more comfortable winning margin. This is probably the most likely way our 3/1 punt wins, but there is another.

If Glasgow freeze at the big dance against their experienced counterparts, Toulon could have this game wrapped up early doors. As we so often see in finals, once teams know the result is out of sight they can slacken off and if Toulon do get out to a big lead, we'd expect the enterprising Warriors to at least hit back and make the scoreline respectable. Whichever way you are playing this one, remember to gamble responsibly and lets hope for a brilliant game of rugby.