EPL Matchday 21 Part One

In the first match week this calendar year, the Premier League returns this weekend for EPL Matchday 21 part one with only half the teams involved.

Although there may only be five matches, this is the better group of games, which kicks off Friday night with a relegation six-pointer between Burnley and Luton Town. This is followed by the SW6 Derby between Fulham and Chelsea and Manchester City’s trip to Newcastle on Saturday.

Sunday’s pair of fixtures are also excellent, starting with Everton hosting Aston Villa in the early match. EPL Matchday 21 part one ends with Manchester United playing Tottenham Hotspur at Old Trafford.

We will give our favorite bets of the weekend below and preview every match in what should be a great round of fixtures across England.

EPL  Matchday 21 Part One – Preview & Best Bets

Burnley vs. Luton Town – I just do not want to back Burnley in any game that I have to lay a price. However, I do understand the odds here with how bad Luton has been away from home.

One way to attack this game would be for there to be goals, whether you take the total or both teams to score. The league fixtures between teams towards the bottom of the league have featured more goals than in years past, but I’m ultimately staying away.

Chelsea vs. Fulham – Chelsea has dominated this derby over the years. Both squads do have some key absentees at the African Cup of Nations. Both also played midweek in an EFL Cup semifinal away from home.

The prices feel about right for two teams that are hard to predict week to week.

Newcastle vs. Manchester City – Newcastle +1 (-112) BetRivers

Before I dive into this matchup, I would wait until you get more confirmation on who is playing for City. The big-name would be Erling Haaland, but you could also see others come back from injury. This would either provide you with better odds or make you stay away.

Yes, I do understand Newcastle’s recent struggles. However, a lot of that has happened due to multiple injuries in the lineup. We saw a near full-strength starting 11 against Sunderland in the FA Cup.

Meanwhile, this is still a team that has been elite at home. Only Liverpool has a better xGDiff and created more expected goals at home this season, according to fbref.com.

Reminder, City closed as -120 favorites at home against the Magpies on the second game of the season. This is just a big shift in price since then at one of the toughest grounds in the country to get a result at as a visitor.

Everton vs. Aston Villa – Everton Draw No Bet (+105) BetRivers

All signs point towards Abdoulaye Doucouré returning to the Everton lineup, which is enough for me to back the Toffees again. Sean Dyche’s side has beaten Newcastle, Chelsea, and Bournemouth at Goodison Park.

Meanwhile, this is also a fade of Villa away from home. Unai Emery’s team owns a -1.61 xGDiff on the road compared to a +12 at Villa Park.

The other difference is in the defensive metrics. Away from home, the Villans are allowing an average of 1.59 expected goals and over three big scoring chances per match.

As long as the Toffees are close to full strength, I don’t believe they should be the underdog in this spot.

Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur – United is still without key midfielders. Meanwhile, Spurs won’t have Son Heung-min or their main central players.

This is the easiest pass on the board. However, it could be an entertaining watch to end EPL Matchday 21, part one.