Eric Musselman confident Arkansas is an NCAA Tournament team
For a variety of reasons, the regular season did not meet lofty preseason expectations for Arkansas basketball, but head coach Eric Musselman remains confident the Razorbacks (19-12, 8-10 SEC) have put themselves in strong position to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
"Yes, we feel like through the regular-season basketball, we’ve proven that we’re an NCAA Tournament team," he said on Saturday.
Arkansas is limping into the postseason on a three-game losing streak after dropping its home finale to short-handed Kentucky at Bud Walton Arena on Saturday, 88-79. The Razorbacks have been unable to take advantage of a trio of potential resume-building opportunities in the past week, but despite a 3-9 record against Quadrant 1 opponents the computers love the Hogs across the board.
The Razorbacks have four wins against projected at-large teams (San Diego State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky) and only have one loss outside of the first two quadrants on the year. Arkansas' strength of schedule ranks 25 at KenPom with a non-conference slate that features three conference champions, two runner-up finishers and 11 of 13 opponents who finished inside the top 150 of the NET rankings.
Here's a look at where Arkansas ranks on the team sheet metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee:
- NET: 18
- KPI: 25
- Strength of Record: 43
- BPI: 14
- KenPom: 19
- Sagarin: 23
No team outside the top 32 of the NET rankings has been left out of the field since the tool was implemented in 2018. The tourney odds simulator at BartTorvik.com currently gives Arkansas a 96.7 percent chance to receive a bid to March Madness.
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports projects Arkansas as a 9-seed facing Iowa State. ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest update has the Razorbacks as a 9-seed playing Illinois.
While the Razorbacks are in solid shape to hear their name called on Selection Sunday, they will still hit next week's SEC Tournament at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville with a sense of urgency. The 10th-seeded Hogs will open up bracket play with a Quad 1 opportunity against Auburn on Thursday at 6 p.m. (CT). With a win, Arkansas gets another shot to pad the resume against No. 2 Texas A&M on Friday.
"I think every team should go into the SEC Tournament fighting for their season because it is a second season," Musselman said. "The regular season is now over and I thought we did an incredible job, when you think about our win-loss record and you think about the metrics and you think about the non-conference and you think about the success of the teams that we did beat in non-conference play, yes, we feel confident that we’re an NCAA Tournament team."
Of course, it is one thing to punch a ticket to the dance and another to unpack your bags and stay a while. The Razorbacks lost five regular season games by three points, which includes narrow defeats to tournament locks like Creighton, Missouri, Baylor and Alabama.
Arkansas has proven it can play with anyone, but not necessarily that it can beat anyone. In other words, the Hogs belong in the NCAA Tournament, but this consistently inconsistent team needs to sharpen up in some key areas on the practice floor and regain some momentum in Nashville if it has plans on coming anywhere near the Elite Eight runs of the past two seasons.
"It’s up to our team to try to continue to get better," Musselman said. "It’s up to our team to play as hard as you can possibly play. It’s up to our team to share the ball. I thought we did share the ball tonight. Uncharacteristic defense of late. We haven’t played very good basketball the last three games and we’ve got to get better.
"We did a great job, I mentioned the other day, in our non-conference play and we’re still a team that, if we play better basketball — which I think we can — we’ve got to start doing it. I thought we played well at Alabama. Did not think we played well at Tennessee and I did not think we played well again tonight. We’ve got to improve for sure."
As Arkansas turns the page to beginning preparations for postseason play, it will need to wipe the slate clean and leave a frustrating end to the regular season behind.
"Losing three in a row, you know, that takes a toll on confidence for our team," said freshman guard Nick Smith Jr. "But as a leader, I’ve got to come out ready to practice and tell the guys the season’s not over. We’ve just got to come ready to play Thursday."
