ESPN releases FPI Top 25 ahead of 2023 College Football season

We’re still over four months away from the kickoff of the 2023 college football season. Still, with the spring practice period all but wrapped up, there’s no less excitement for this fall to get here already. With that in mind, the release of ESPN’s FPI ratings should continue to fire up every program included.

First, though, let’s break down what their Football Power Index stands for. For the preseason, the system measures the past performances of teams to determine a rating. It also takes returning or added production and recruiting statistics. Once that’s all calculates, ESPN simulates the season 20,000 times to create their official projections.

Now, with that said, those in Columbus should be quite excited as Ohio State took the No. 1 spot in the FPI rankings. The Buckeyes are actually the best team in the rating by a significant margin as they sit over three points above Alabama at No. 2. They also are the far and away favorite to win the national championship next season with an 82% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 37% to hoist the trophy. While losing CJ Stroud is a lot to overcome, ESPN’s rating still holds Ohio State in high regard since they return a ton of production, specifically on the offensive side of the football.

The other notable thing is by how much the top three of Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia clear the rest of the Top-25. There’s a five-point difference in FPI, a drop from 19% to 6% in odds to win the title, and a drop from 62% to 34% in odds to make the CFP when you look at the third and fourth-place slots. Considering all three teams lost their top-notch quarterbacks, the rating must truly value the rest of their rosters. Long story short, the Buckeyes, Crimson Tide, and Bulldogs are on a level of their own, much like it was last offseason.

We know our favorites, we have our breakdown, and we understand how this all works. Now that we’re all straight, here are ESPN’s newest FPI rankings ahead of the next college football season.

* indicates a tie

When it comes to conferences, the SEC dominates the FPI rating. The league holds three teams in the top five when you include LSU and seven of the 25 spots overall. ESPN’s analytics give the conference a 97% chance to get a team in the playoff field and a ridiculous 51% chance to have two selected, mostly because its two best teams play in different divisions.

Still, when it comes to making the CFP, we see a bit of a shakeup. Texas, Michigan, USC, and Clemson all hopped LSU with higher odds to get into the field. The Big Ten has to feel good with the Wolverines as well as Penn State in the Top-10 while the Big 12, ACC, and non-Power Five schools each hold one spot apiece.