European Champions Cup predictions: Rugby tips & odds

European Champions Cup predictions

A little less than six weeks on from the Rugby World Cup wrapping up, another of the sport’s premier tournaments gets underway on Friday when the European Champions Cup makes it’s highly anticipated return. 

Europe’s top domestic tournament features 24 teams this season and has undergone something of a facelift. 

Gone are the two pools of 12, replaced by four pools of six with teams playing four games (two home and two away) against four different opponents. Teams from the same domestic league can't face each other and the top four from each section will advance to the last 16 phase of the competition. 

It still means the pool stages don’t carry as much jeopardy as previous Champions Cup iterations, but should be easier to follow as the road to the final at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on May 25 gets underway on Friday with Connacht hosting Bordeaux and Northampton travelling to Glasgow.

European Champions Cup Pools

Pool 1: Saracens, Bordeaux, Bulls, Bristol Bears, Connacht, Lyon

Pool 2: Toulouse, Cardiff, Bath, Racing 92, Harlequins, Ulster

Pool 3: Munster, Bayonne, Glasgow Warriors, Exeter Chiefs, Toulon, Northampton Saints

Pool 4: La Rochelle, Leinster, Stade Francais, Leicester Tigers, Stormers, Sale Sharks

However, from a betting point of view, this year’s Champions Cup is a head-scratcher given the unknown knock-on effect the World Cup could have.

The global showpiece took its toll on players and was the final hurrah for several star names, including Ireland’s Johnny Sexton, although his absence hasn’t deterred betting sites from making Sexton’s old club Leinster the favourites to win a fifth Champions Cup.

The Irish province have finished runners-up each of the last two years, beaten by La Rochelle, who are a best-priced 9/2 with SpreadEx to become only the second side to win three straight Champions Cups.

Five of the top 10 teams in the outright betting are French, while the Stormers are the top priced South African side in the second year of teams from the Rainbow Nation being involved.

Leinster will be expected to lead the challenge from Ireland, but Munster have a strong tradition in the Champions Cup and are the reigning URC champions. The two-time European champions have a battled-hardened squad that will be a tough out.

And what about a challenge from an English team? Eight have made the cut and yet expectations are limited due to a recent exodus of talent from the Premiership. 

However, Saracens, who don’t fit the mould of their rivals, are 10/1 with rugby betting sites and that is a price which makes the three-time European champions worthy of closer inspection.

Strong Sarries challenge expected

Saracens climbed back to the top of the Premiership mountain last season when they won their first Grand Final since their demotion from the top flight in 2020.

It was a deserved success for a team that had led the standings for much of the season, while they also managed to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions Cup, losing to eventual winners La Rochelle.

They’ve made a stuttering start to this campaign, losing three times already in the Premiership, but there’s a sense Mark McCall’s team are saving themselves for a big push in Europe. 

And while many of their English counterparts have seen their top talent plucked from their ranks, Saracens have held on to their big names, even managing to add some quality in Argentine duo Juan Martin Gonzalez and Lucio Cinti, and England’s Tom Willis.

Having struggled without their big names when the World Cup was on this season, strength in depth is a worry but they should benefit from Owen Farrell’s decision to exclude himself from England duty for the Six Nations.

Farrell has said he will continue playing for Saracens, so should be fresh when the knockout phase starts next year.

Saracens start their campaign by taking on the Bulls in the 35 heat of Pretoria. The Bulls have yet to lose at home to a European team since moving to the United Rugby Championship and Sarries are five-point underdogs on betting apps for the clash.

That’s a tough assignment but they should take enough points from their remaining matches against Connacht (H), Bordeaux (A) and Lyon (H) to reach the last 16. Beyond that, Saracens have shown their mettle in a knockout environment time and time again and if they can keep their big guns fit, may give the French and Irish sides a run for their money.

Toulon may rise again

Facing two French teams in the pool stage should prepare Saracens well for the knockout games, where Top 14 sides are likely to stand in their way once more.

France has dominated European rugby for three years, winning both the Champions and Challenge Cups, and William Hill go 5/6 on another French side winning the Champions Cup this season.

Trying to get an idea of which Top 14 teams could go well in Europe is tricky. The top five in the current Top 14 standings all have identical win-loss records as the big names ease their way back in after the World Cup, while some French sides are happy to punt a European campaign in favour of domestic glory.

Teams with a track record of success in Europe tend to try and fight on both fronts, and this year that list includes La Rochelle, Toulouse, Racing 92 and Toulon. 

Back-to-back winners La Rochelle return largely the same squad, featuring a monstrous pack, that beat Leinster by one point in last year’s final. But winning three titles in a row is a huge ask and they face a tough pool stage, taking on Leinster (H), the Stormers (A), Sale (A) and Leicester (H).

Current Top 14 leaders Racing are desperate to get their first star after losing three finals previously. They’ve made some eye-catching signings, including South Africa’s World Cup-winning skipper Siya Kolisi, and have a talented pool of backs. 

But they bombed out of the Champions Cup at the pool stage last year and there are question marks about their star-studded squad’s ability to compete in the trenches when the going gets tough.

Reigning French champions Toulouse are likely to be without their two star men for much of the tournament. Fly-half Romain Ntamack is out until early April with a knee injury, while Antoine Dupont’s Rugby Sevens commitments will see him miss chunks of the season.

Toulouse have also lost full-back Melvyn Jaminet, who has joined a strong Toulon side chasing its third Champions Cup and first since 2015. 

They are an interesting 20/1 chance with BetMGM, featuring a nice balance of work horses and star names in their squad who can perhaps carry them deep into the competition. They aren’t packed full of internationals with the potential to break down following their World Cup exertions.

Their pool fixtures – Exeter (H), Northampton (A), Munster (H), Glasgow (A) – shouldn’t give coach Pierre Mignoni too many concerns and they gave a clear demonstration of their European credentials last year when winning the Challenge Cup.

Their record at the Stade Mayol is frightening and may give Toulon the platform to challenge for title number four.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.