Expert MLB Handicapping for Starting Pitchers and Bounce Back Seasons
The baseball deities have smiled upon not-so-patiently-waiting fans and granted us the return of hardball. That's right folks, spring training started last week and many teams already have multiple games under their belt. "The Boys of Summer" are back.
One of the more intriguing endeavors for analysts is trying to forecast which pitchers struggled the year before but are poised for a bounce-back season. There can be great value found early in the season for those of you who did your due diligence in the cold, winter months. However, in case you neglected to sift through the hundreds of players and their statistics, Doc's has you covered, as our handicappers and research department have been doing all of that work, and more.
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Sean Manaea (LHP) New York Mets
2023 stats: 7-6 4.44 ERA 117.2 IP 42 BB 128 K 14 HR allowed
Unless you've been holed up with Punxsutawney Phil all winter, you know that Shohei Ohtani stayed on the West Coast and signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But one of the much less heralded signings may prove to be just as important as "Shotime". Free agent Sean Manaea signed with the New York Mets and is poised to improve on the 2023 season where he posted a 7-6 record with a 4.44 ERA over 117 innings. While that stat line isn't bad by today's standards, he could get even better.
In the 2023 offseason, Manaea trained at the prestigious Driveline Baseball in Seattle, and they improved his mechanics. Specifically, they changed his torso rotation, increasing his average fastball velocity of 91.2 mph, topping out at 97.2 mph. This resulted in an average increase to his 4-seam fastball of nearly 3 mph and his throwing 34 of the 50 fastest pitches in his career last year. It took some time to properly work out the new mechanics, and the second half of his season was markedly better. From August 1st until the end of the end of the regular season, he posted a 2.87 ERA, with hitters batting a paltry .209 and recording a 1.09 WHIP.
Having a full year under his belt with the improved mechanics, and a change of scenery (he has been on California teams his entire career), Manaea should be a sneaky-good starter who could be undervalued his first few outings.
Aaron Nola (RHP) Philadelphia Phillies
2023 stats: 12-9 4.46 ERA 193.2 IP 45 BB 202 K 32 HR allowed
While Aaron Nola may not be "under the radar", he should rebound from a personally disappointing 2023 season that saw him surrender a career-worst 32 home runs. Like Manaea, when compared against the league, Nola's 2023 stats were average. However, when looking at his career as the ace of the Phillies staff, it was most definitely a disappointment.
Nola was involved in contract negotiations prior to last season and then tabled the discussions, to concentrate on the season. Sometimes suspending contract talks can help a player perform better, but other times it can adversely affect them. This seemed to be the case with Nola, who was the epitome of inconsistency throughout 2023.
Diving into the advanced analytics reveals that Nola also suffered from bad luck as well. His Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) allowed was a solid .285, 15 points below the league average of .300. His expected ERA (xERA) of 3.77 was over half a run less than his actual 4.46.
With the contract headaches removed after his extension in November that keeps him in Philadelphia for another seven seasons, Nola should be able to completely focus on his pitching and return to his All-Star self.
Cole Ragans (LHP) Kansas City Royals
2023 stats: 7-5 3.47 ERA 96.0 IP 41 BB 113 K 7 HR allowed
Every so often, you see a "win-win" trade that helps both teams. Ragans started the season with the Texas Rangers but was the little-mentioned player involved with the 2023 deadline trade that brought flame-throwing reliever Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers. Texas went on to win the World Series and Ragans is set to possibly become the ace of the Royals' staff.
Admittedly, that isn't saying much for a team whose PECOTA projections are to win no more than 71 games. However, you have to start somewhere. Ragans is another example of needing the first half of last year to work out the kinks of a new mechanic, with his being the addition of a slider he learned in Triple-A. By the time he got to Kansas City, he was firing on all cylinders. Over 12 starts and 71.2 innings pitched, he recorded a 5-2 record with a 2.64 ERA and 89 strikeouts to 27 walks.
His advanced analytics truly show his potential to be a dominant pitcher. His fastball velocity was in the 89th percentile, with his whiff percentage and strikeout percentage coming in the 83rd and 85th percentile, respectively.
With a pitching staff that is already in flux with probable Hall of Famer Zack Greinke possibly retiring, Royals fans should be very happy with their return of the Chapman trade.
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