F1 Miami Grand Prix odds, picks, preview: Can Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc challenge Max Verstappen?
Formula One’s world tour made a very long trip, on back-to-back race weekends no less, from Azerbaijan to Miami this week. It was the longest doubleheader trip on the calendar until Las Vegas’ addition this year, which is followed by the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
Speaking of travel, this weekend’s Miami Grand Prix is the last race before the European section of the season takes over with the next 10 races in Europe.
The Miami Grand Prix debuted last year to much fanfare. With A-list celebrity guests in significant number and a fake marina as part of the spectacle, Miami quickly became a marquee event in F1 as the sport tries to continue and capitalize on its American growth.
The temporary circuit built around Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., led to a race that didn’t have a lot of action. That’s not a good sign after even the typically action-packed Baku delivered a dud last week. If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about an interesting race, there’s a decent chance of rain on Sunday on top of hot and humid conditions.
Another thing to point to is Charles Leclerc’s two pole positions last week in Baku. While Leclerc was passed easily on track in both the sprint race and the grand prix, he did outqualify both Red Bulls in two different qualifying sessions. The Ferrari still looks a long way from winning on a Sunday on merit, but after Red Bull drivers Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez combined to win every pole and race through three races, a sign of competition from elsewhere, even just in qualifying, is a good sign.
The odds at BetMGM are giving Leclerc a decent shot at taking pole position again, although Verstappen is the favorite. Verstappen is -125 (4-to-5) to take pole with Leclerc at +200 (2-to-1) and Pérez at +500 (5-to-1).
As for the race odds, well, those tell a different story. Verstappen is a more significant favorite and Pérez is well ahead of everyone else in second. Last year in Miami, Ferrari had a 1-2 in qualifying with Leclerc ahead of teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. on the front row. Verstappen still won the race after starting third.
As it looks now, Verstappen is likely to be the betting favorite for every race the rest of the year. The drivers’ championship, at least on paper for now, is closer than that would imply. Both Verstappen and Pérez have two wins and Verstappen’s lead is only six points. If you think Pérez will be allowed to compete for the championship and can actually pull it off, he is +600 (6-to-1) as opposed to Verstappen’s -800 (1-to-8).
The Athletic’s F1 crew answered questions and made predictions for the race.
Outside the spectacle of having a race in Miami, what stands out about this track and this race?
Jordan Bianchi: Is the fake marina an acceptable answer? Because the absurdity of building a replica water area at a race billed as being in Miami but is actually well outside away from the answer is comical.
Jeff Gluck: For a race held in a football stadium parking lot, the organizers have done a really good job making this feel like a high-end event. This year, for example, they moved the team hospitality area onto the Dolphins field. Given the rest of the world’s fascination with American football, having the team chalets right on the field with drivers walking on the “pitch,” as they’d say, is pretty cool. And everything from the paddock entry to the various party zones screams “Miami,” even if it’s not actually near South Beach.
Sergio Pérez is six points behind Max Verstappen, but is +600 (6-to-1) in the odds to win the championship. Is Pérez a legitimate contender? Do you think Red Bull will let him compete with Max?
Bianchi: Pérez needs to demonstrate that he can win on a “proper” road course before we can even seriously contemplate him pushing Verstappen for the title. And then there is the Red Bull component and how the team – and Verstappen – handle the situation. Considering the events of last year and the hurt feelings that may still linger, it’s not hard to envision this bubbling over.
Gluck: I don’t think it will ultimately matter, because Verstappen will win whether the team intervenes or not. But the longer their title fight drags on, the more that question will pop up and salvage perhaps the only truly juicy storyline F1 has going right now. Unless Verstappen and George Russell somehow let their Baku spat carry over to other races.
Do you think Ferrari will be slightly more competitive going forward or was last week’s pole position(s) from Charles Leclerc misleading on how close they are to Red Bull?
Bianchi: Ferrari and Leclerc taking the pole in Baku was a nice surprise that offers encouraging signs that the potential is there to maybe challenge Red Bull. But when you look at how the race itself played out with Red Bull completely running away from Leclerc, it’s obvious Ferrari has a ways to go before you can realistically expect them to contend for wins unless Red Bull stumbles.
Gluck: They can be close to Red Bull for like one lap because Leclerc is F1’s best qualifier. But once the teams get into race pace, there’s no one close to Red Bull. You can definitely argue Ferrari might be better than Aston Martin now (or pretty even, at least), but not Red Bull. Those cars won’t lose this season unless there are fluky circumstances (bad timing on a safety car, mechanical failure, wreck at the start of the race, etc.).
Aston Martin has 87 points followed by Mercedes’ 76 and Ferrari’s 62. What order will those teams be in at the end of the season?
Gluck: Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin. I’m going to assume Ferrari has more clean weekends like Leclerc had in Baku, Mercedes stays maximizing its performances with a slower car and Lance Stroll drags down Aston’s points total in the end.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Miami?
Bianchi: 1. Verstappen, 2. Pérez, 3. Hamilton
Gluck: 1. Verstappen, 2. Pérez, 3. Leclerc
