Falmouth Stakes Preview: Unexposed filly can take another step forward

horseracing.net

13 July 2023

Falmouth Stakes Preview: Unexposed filly can take another step forward

George Boughey's Via Sistina heads the market for the 2023 Falmouth Stakes, but the trainer has intimated her participation will be decided by a last ditch walk of the track to assess if Newmarket has turned soft enough by Friday. Obviously the market and the way the race plays out will change drastically whether Via Sistina runs or not, but Billy Grimshaw is keen to take her on and will be happy to take the Rule 4 if she is withdrawn...

Via Sistina

Jamie SpencerGeorge Boughey

Remarquee

Rob HornbyRalph Beckett

Nashwa

Hollie DoyleJohn & Thady Gosden

Coppice

Tom MarquandJohn & Thady Gosden

Prosperous Voyage

William BuickRalph Beckett

Never Ending Story

Ryan MooreA P O'Brien

Ameynah

David EganRoger Varian

Random Harvest

Saffie OsborneEd Walker

Astral Beau

Shane KellyPam Sly

3
1/5
3
1/5
3
1/5
3
1/5
3
1/5
3
1/5
3
1/5

Odds correct as of 2023-07-14 14:42 Odds subject to change.

Via Sistina possesses plenty of reasons to be heading the market, mainly her propensity to perform at a very high level on rain softened ground as shown in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh. The Newmarket ground staff have drawn criticism on social media this week for potentially overwatering, with an unpredictable weather forecast running the risk of seriously softened ground.This would see Via Sistina go off a very short price here, but the chances of the ground being truly soft are slim and it is more likely to still be firmer than would be George Boughey's inmate's preferred surface. Couple this with the fact in my eyes she should be beginning a Group 1 middle distance campaign and here over a mile I have to take her on.

Nashwa looks set to be her main market rival and this will be her first run over a mile since April 2022. Many believe this is in fact her best trip, but she is certainly not a non-stayer and I can't shake off her lacklustre finishing effort at Newcastle last time out. Maybe Hollie Doyle will send her to the front and she won't be caught, but I've never been convinced this filly wants a battle and she could perhaps have not quite trained on at four.

Remarquee always looked second best to Tahiyra at Royal Ascot but was only beaten a length in the end and did lose a shoe in the run. She is a bona-fide miler but her 1000 Guineas flop must be a concern for those willing to take a chance on her at 5/1 here. The run at Ascot was much more like it, and Ralph Beckett has always held this filly in the highest regard, but I would favour of his duo the 2022 champion Prosperous Voyage, who of course upset Inspiral at the crazy odds of 1/7!

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The Ascot race won't have suited Prosperous Voyage as they dawdled, but this race should be more truly run with Nashwa and Via Sistina being proven stayers, so she should have pace to aim at. She was the second choice and I did toy with going in double handed in this race, but I am sweet enough on the main selection to leave her unbacked. Prosperous Voyage finished behind Random Harvest at Royal Ascot but this race should be better for Beckett's defending champion and I'd back her in a match bet, although odds compilers seem to agree annoyingly, probably down to the draw each filly has received.

Never Ending Story was well and truly put in her place by Via Sistina at the Curragh when eight lengths behind and although she may get closer now reunited with Ryan Moore, there is nothing obvious to say why she could turn the tables. Asteral Beau is certainly the more interesting outsider than Roger Varian's Ameynah, with Pam Sly's filly having run once and won once on the July course and only finishing less than a length behind Prosperous Voyage and Random Harvest. At double their price she could hit the frame, unlike Varian's filly who although high class in her pomp has been off a year and will surely need the run.

The only horse left to mention is my pick to win the Falmouth and that is COPPICE for team Gosden and Tom Marquand. The Juddmonte filly is bred for the job being by Kingman and I'm delighted to see her available at double figure odds. She was regarded as one of the team's high hopes for the season before disappointing as 2/1 favourite in the Nell Gwyn, but there were excuses that day and she has bounced back in style since. I really liked the way she won the Sandringham at Royal Ascot and although this is a big step up, Gosden doesn't waste many bullets and they must be thrilled with her at home to chuck her in here.

Along with Never Ending Story and Remarquee she will receive 9lbs from her elders which will be a big help, and the 10/1 is definitely worth taking as she looks a fair few points too big. Without her Nell Gwyn flop she would be half the price, if not vying for favouritism, and the booking of Marquand for a yard he has rarely ridden for is in my opinion a positive.

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