FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Predictions, Picks, & MLS Odds

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02 December 2023

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Predictions, Picks, & MLS Odds

Cincinnati got by Philadelphia last week by the skin of their teeth and now they have to take on a Columbus Crew side with plenty of firepower. Cincinnati will be missing key pieces, and our MLS picks expect the Crew to pull out the win.

Hell is real, and that’s exactly where the loser of Saturday’s MLS semifinal will feel like they are when FC Cincinnati hosts their bitter rivals, the Columbus Crew. MLS odds indicate we should be in for an epic showdown.

The top team in the East all season was able to slip past Philadelphia last weekend, albeit in a very controversial fashion. Cincinnati's stoppage-time winner was the only goal of the match, and VAR failed to intervene on what appeared to be an obvious offside. The 1-0 win was the 10th time this season they’ve won by that scoreline, and now they sit just one win away from the MLS Cup final.

For Columbus, “Hell is real” is the perfect way to describe their visits to Cincy. At least, that’s what I’d call earning just one win in six all-time trips to southwest Ohio. But they’ll be feeling good after picking up a win away in Orlando, and having pushed Cincinnati to the brink in a 3-2 loss earlier this season.

Will Cincinnati’s defense hold up against the high-scoring Columbus attack, or will the visitors head back up Interstate 71 just 90 minutes away from their third MLS Cup crown? Find out in my FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew MLS picks for Saturday, December 2.

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew best odds

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew picks and predictions

Home-field advantage is such a huge boon for teams in MLS. The vast distances some teams have to travel — sometimes going across multiple time zones — play a big role in this. But it’s also partly the fact the league has such randomness at times due to the inferior talent in defense vs. what clubs invest in offensive firepower.

Hitting the road hasn’t mattered much to Columbus. Casual observers will point to Columbus having a man advantage in extra time, and they’d be right. However, they’d be ignoring the fact the Crew were in the ascendency for the majority of the match before that sending off, and their 2.37 xG was superior to the 1.25 mark posted by Orlando City.

Columbus have lost just once in their last five matches away from home, with a 4-2 defeat to Atlanta United the only result blemishing that record. They took all three points at New England last month and have been held scoreless just once in their last seven on the road.

Now they take the very short drive southwest to the Queen City to face a team that will be missing multiple key pieces. The MLS Defender of the Year is suspended, meaning Cincinnati's defense will have to find a way to slow down the top attack in the league without Matt Miazga.

Last week, I picked Philadelphia to advance over Cincinnati. And while they were pipped in the end, the match played out much as I expected. Philadelphia had more chances, more shots, and a higher xG mark on the night. And if VAR had properly done their job, the match would’ve gone to extra time deadlocked.

The difference this week is Columbus have the weapons in attack to punish Cincinnati in ways Philadelphia simply didn’t. Cucho Hernandez scored his fourth goal of the playoffs against Orlando last weekend and will present a real problem for a defense missing Miazga and Nick Hagglund — who is doubtful for the match

Columbus have won four of their last five matches and have scored multiple goals against Cincinnati in each of their last six meetings. They’ve scored exactly two goals in each of their three trips to the TQL, and two goals this weekend will likely be enough to see them through.

I’ll take the best attack in the league to get the job done against a defense missing the best defender in the league, and likely without their other starting CB as well. TonyBet is offering +117 odds for Columbus to make it through, and I’ll take those odds as I back Columbus to get their first-ever win at TQL Stadium.

My best bet: Columbus Crew to qualify (+117 at TonyBet)

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FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew same-game parlay

Columbus Crew to qualify

Cucho Hernandez anytime goalscorer

Cucho Hernandez Over 3.5 shots

My same-game parlay may look a bit familiar to those who tailed last week when I previewed Columbus — but that’s for a good reason.

I backed Hernandez to score anytime, and he did just that... from midfield. Ok, so Orlando’s goalkeeper was inside the center circle, but it was still an impressive finish for his fourth goal of the playoffs. And I like him to do so yet again on Saturday.

Hernandez shot anytime he got the chance. I backed him to take at least five, and he finished a staggering 11 attempts — seven of which were blocked. So let’s run it back. Cucho’s now taken at least four shots in each of his last 10 matches, and only one in that span has he taken fewer than six.

He also attempted at least five in both meetings with Cincinnati this season. I nearly gave this out as my best bet, but I’ll use it in the SGP instead to run the price up to +500 at bet365.

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FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew side and Over/Under analysis

Since the lines came out, Cincinnati has seen their odds shift from even money up to around +120. The injury issues are a real concern for bettors, as was their inability to score a goal from open play against Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the draw and a Columbus win have both gained ground on the 3-way moneyline. The Crew can now be had at +220 — down from +275 over the weekend — while the draw has shifted from +250 to +230.

As for the total, it comes as no surprise the Over is ruling the market. It’ll cost you -130 or more to play the Over 2.5 and about the same to play the Under 2.75 on the Asian market.

Anybody who has watched these teams play one another understands why. They’ve met 13 times in their history, and 10 of those have featured three or more goals. The last three get-togethers treated the fans to a combined 12 goals.

But it’s the playoffs, and scoring chances have been harder to come by. There’s some value in the Under, but this is also a rivalry match, which means anything goes.

I’m not playing the total for those reasons, but I do like the value presented on Columbus Over 1.5 team total, which is priced at +164.