FIBA World Cup 2023 Australia-Japan preview

OKINAWA, Japan -- The Australian Boomers probably didn't want to be faced with this level of pressure so early in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, but that's the situation they've put themselves in.

We haven't even progressed past the first round of the Group Phase and the Boomers are already being confronted with a do-or-die situation.

Tuesday evening's game between Australia and Japan will decide who finishes in second place in Group E to progress in the tournament, while the other team will be knocked out of contention to win the World Cup.

It's an interesting dynamic because, realistically, Australia is entering the contest as the overwhelming favourite to win the game -- they're, on paper, wildly more talented and seasoned as a group -- but it's a high-pressure situation and the Japanese have home court advantage, so some conventional thinking has to be thrown out the window.

This will mark the final game of Group E in this World Cup, and there's no understating how thick the tension already is.

Why the Boomers can't give Japan any life

It's an extremely small sample size but still worth noting that the Japanese haven't shot it particularly well over their first two games of the World Cup. They've shot it at just 27% from beyond the arc, on 31.5 attempts a contest, and Yuta Watanabe has yet to find his range, shooting it at 15.4% from downtown.

And, while the odds are stacked against them against a talented Australian team, we know that a team like Japan will keep firing and can get hot at any moment.

In Sunday's win over Finland, Japan was led by the hot shooting of Yuki Kawamura, who finished with 25 points - including 4-of-7 from downtown - and hit big shot after big shot down the stretch. The 5'8 point guard made the most of a Finnish team that was switching, hitting tough threes over bigger bodies and using his quickness to get on the rim.

Japan also got 28 points and 19 rebounds from their big-man, Joshua Hawkinson, and that opened up more three-point shooting opportunities for Tom Hovasse's team. We know Watanabe is a solid NBA player and Yudai Baba is a quality two-way guy at this level, so they have some of the pieces to compete.

Japan guards up the floor and has quick, dynamic guards. Australia has the pieces to neutralise that, but Japan's up-tempo style of play is one that could lead to some unpredictable outcomes. In front of what's expected to be a pretty raucous crowd, who'll presumably be very aware of the high stakes, anything can happen.

"They're a good team," Joe Ingles said of Japan. "They press a lot, play a lot of zone. We're obviously playing in Japan; they've got a home crowd there. We'll get through tonight and watch a bit of film and get ready for that."

The Boomers will obviously be highly-favoured to win the game - and by a lot - but slow starts have been a hindrance; even giving Japan a sniff at the possibility that they could compete with Australia could well be the nail in the coffin. The urgency has to be there from the tip.

The Japanese are fully aware of the opportunity in front of them, as well as how difficult a challenge it'll be, but they've already exceeded expectations and will look to continue that in front of what's sure to be a sold out Okinawa Arena.

"Australia, man; they're one of the best teams in the world," Japan head coach, Tom Hovasse, said after his team's win over Finland on Sunday.

"We can't allow them to push us around. They're bigger, they're stronger. We have to battle on the rebounds; we have to keep it close on the rebounds. We have to shoot better than we did tonight.

"If we can settle in and play our game and create the pace that we want, I like our chances. We're here to win; we're not here to participate. Obviously we never take them lightly; they're amazing. Coach Goorjian has them playing very well. They lost a tough one today so they're gonna be hungry. They're gonna come with all they have. We've gotta take the punch and counter, and hopefully we can show them what we've got."

Do we see any Boomers changes?

Whether Australia tweaks any of its lineups was one of the storylines that developed after their three-point loss to Germany on Sunday, but should we actually expect any changes going into this one?

Seeing one shift -- perhaps Josh Green re-entering the starting lineup for Matisse Thybulle -- doesn't seem out of the question, because that was the plan going into the World Cup and we've seen it can be effective. It would theoretically widen the floor for Josh Giddey, Patty Mills, and Australia's bigs to operate more effectively at the start of games. The Boomers would be putting serious consideration into altering some of their lineups and that's one that makes the most sense as a value proposition; a better fit, while not so drastic a change that it would impact on-court chemistry.

Otherwise, it's more likely we see the Boomers stay put. Australia enters this game with a significant size advantage, which includes Nick Kay, who hasn't been overwhelmingly impressive over the Boomers' first two games but, as a member of the Shimane Susanoo Magic of the Japanese B.League, would be extremely familiar with what Japan's national team has to offer.

If the Boomers win and are faced with a matchup against Luka Dončić's Slovenia, then there's reason to think more stock would be put into some more potential changes to the starting unit. There'd be some serious consideration into starting Xavier Cooks, for example, but, for this one, the Boomers as presently built are ideally situated to take on a smaller Japanese side.

It's win or go home... then what?

First thing's first: there's no room for error here. Win, and the Boomers finish in second place in Group E and advance to the second round of the Group Phase.

Lose, and they're going home. Well, they would move on to the unenviable 17-32 classification games.

Both Australia and Japan lost to Germany, so any hope of topping this group is out the window. Even if Germany loses to Finland on Tuesday, the tiebreaker between tied teams is the win-loss record between those tied teams, so the top spot is locked in.

So, the winner of this Australia vs. Japan matchup will finish in second place and progress to the second round as a member of Group K. That would form a new group with Germany and two of Slovenia, Georgia, Venezuela, and Cape Verde. All of the results from the first group carry over to the new group.

The Boomers would already be disadvantaged in that group because Germany owns the tie-breaker against them but, regardless, Australia would still need to win every game in order to advance to the quarterfinals.

Australia's match with Japan tips off at 9:10 p.m (AEST) on Aug. 29, available live on ESPN and the ESPN app