find out which trainer is pinning Royal Ascot hopes on 16-1 Sandringham chance
Draw biases are always difficult to predict on the straight track at Ascot and results on the opening three days of the meeting have not produced a reliable trend. Pace maps, however, are a more dependable analysis tool and the vast majority of the early speed in the Sandringham is middle to high.
Tactics are of course subject to change. That is particularly true with lightly raced horses, which these are, but Foniska (stall four) is the only bankable pace on the far side. Contrast that with the top half of the draw and we have forward-goers Balalaika (18), Candle Of Hope (20), Copy Artist (27) and Rich (29) potentially tearing away with several other normally prominent racers potentially contributing to a burn up on the stands’ side.
That will be dangerous for the low-drawn runners and Colin Keane’s judgement of the fractions aboard Foniska will likely be key to how the far-side race develops, particularly if the field splits in two. This could all play perfectly into the hands of the hold-up performers drawn high, namely handicap debutantes Coppice (25) and Jackie Oh (28), who arrive with clear claims.
The problem is these two fillies are disputing favouritism in most quarters, presumably a reflection of their connections and the races they have recently contested. Coppice is trained by John and Thady Gosden and was sent off 2-1 favourite for the Nell Gwyn but never fired, while Aidan O’Brien’s number one hope Jackie Oh was supplemented for the Irish 1,000 Guineas and fared respectably behind Tahiyra in fifth.
There is further Irish 1,000 Guineas form in the shape of Breege (16), who is likely to be underestimated due to her connections. Another handicap debutante, Breege finished seventh in the Classic on her seasonal return and gives the impression a strongly run mile will suit. Her two-year-old form makes her a bigger player than the prices imply.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders
What they say
Charlie Appleby, trainer of Dream Of Love
She disappointed on testing ground in the 1,000 Guineas before running a creditable race on a sounder surface in the German equivalent. She looks stronger compared to the spring and should be a contender on ground we know she appreciates.
Dream Of Love (far side): disappointed in 1,000 Guineas on soft ground
Aidan O'Brien, trainer of Jackie Oh and Unless
Jackie Oh ran well enough in the Irish Guineas and has been coming along nicely. We were delighted with Unless at Naas and she's progressing too.
Richard Hannon, trainer of Magical Sunset and Rich
Magical Sunset should be competitive. I was extremely pleased with her last run - it showed massive improvement. She’s only really coming into form and I think she’ll run very well. Rich has been a little disappointing since her first run of the season but she’s got a light weight.
Ed Dunlop, trainer of Polly Pott
We've been pleased with her since she arrived with us but she's an unknown quantity. She needs to reproduce some of her very good two-year-old form and she's drawn on the wing.
Clive Cox, trainer of Karasavina
She trained very well in the spring. The ground was just a bit soft in the Guineas but she drops down in grade and I'm looking forward to seeing her run on a drier surface.
Clive Cox: runs three in the Sandringham Stakes
Roger Varian, trainer of Cell Sa Beela, Eximious and Youngest
Eximious ran well 16 days ago and will appreciate conditions. Cell Sa Beela is making her seasonal debut but is training very nicely. Her run in the May Hill at Doncaster is good form. Youngest ran poorly on her comeback but was a bit too fresh. She might be a filly to tackle further in time.
Hugo Palmer, trainer of Chelsea Green
Chelsea Thoroughbreds have made mile handicaps look easy to win and I feel she's our best chance of the week. We were pretty confident going into Newmarket last time and she seems to have come on from that win. The quick ground won't be a problem and I think Ascot, and the way races develop there, will suit her.
Dave Loughnane, trainer of Sparks Fly
If it stays good to firm she'd be an unlikely runner. Her form on softer ground is decent and if we get the rain then I'd be going there quietly confident.
Gary Moore, trainer of Novus
She's not going there to be a social runner, I hope she has a chance. She's in good order and won nicely at Goodwood last time. My only negative would be if the ground got too quick there.
Read the rest of our Friday previews:
Do you want £200+ of free bets? Racing Post have got the best offers, all in one place. Visit racingpost.com/freebets
