Five college football systems for Week 0/1
The opening week of the college football season presents interesting matchups. Oddsmakers set their lines for the season and the professional bettors bet heavily on them. I studied the results of games against the lines and came up with five betting concepts for this and next week. The rules are similar to those used in the last nine seasons. The qualifying plays are next weekend, but there are some for Saturday. There are also three Stability Score plays for that week that I detail in a separate article.
Huge favorites (-37.5 or higher) have been automatic since 2013, going 9-0 SU and ATS.
There are three games with massive lines for this year in Weeks 0/1. Minnesota plays New Mexico State, Alabama plays Utah State and Texas plays Louisiana-Monroe.
Favorites have been more reliable at home and on neutral fields since 2013.
Steve's thoughts on the importance of playing at home in a season opener. Home teams generally win the ATS bet. There has been a 13.2% difference between the success rates of home and road favorites beating their points spreads in Week 0/1 games of late.
There are 17 games for the first two weekends featuring true road favorites playing in difficult environments. Nevada at New Mexico, Vandalism at Hawaii, Penn State at Purdue, Virginia Tech at Old Dominion, TCU at Colorado, North Carolina at Appalachian State, NC State vs. East Carolina, TULSA at Wyoming, Houston at Texas-San Antonio, Florida Atlantic at Ohio, LOUISVILLE at Syracuse, WESTERN KENTUCKY at HAWAII, and CLEMSON at Georgia Tech.
Group of 5 teams are just 18-25 ATS (41.9%) since 2013.
There are eight Group of 5 games this season. Florida Atlantic and Florida are heavy favorites. Utah State is a heavy favorite against Connecticut. Nevada is the favorite at New Mexico State. BYU is favored at South Florida. James Madison is playing at Middle Tennessee State, and TULANE is taking on Massachusetts. Western Kentucky is at Hawaii.
Favorites in games between two conference opponents have struggled to both win and cover games since 2016.
Steve explains the importance of conference games in the early weeks of the season. Conference favorites have covered at only 38.9% of their games. There are five Big Ten games and an ACC game on tap for the next two weekends.
There are seven games in Weeks 0/1 that are conference favorites. The line-up for the North Texas/UTEP game is a pick-'em.
Oddsmakers advise against low-totaled games with bigger favorites. Under the total is 22-6 (78.6%) since 2013.
Oddsmakers study college football teams during the offseason. They find that teams aren't going to be very explosive offensively. The underdogs of + 4 or more in these 28 games have scored just 12.9 PPG.
Arizona/San Diego State and Clemson/Georgia Tech could qualify for 2022. There are only two games officially qualifying as Under plays as of publication time.
