Flatter: When do Kentucky Derby 2023 preps really begin?

It says the road to Kentucky Derby 2023 began with the firstpoints race exactly five months ago. That a Grade 3 race during the last weekof last summer was the first prep.

Neither sentence is realistically true.

For all intents and purposes, however intents and purposesare found these days, the road starts this weekend with the Risen Star.

Give me all the Iroquois and Futurities and Shams you got. Callyour race the Springboard or name it after Robert B., Sam F. or Smarty J. Theyare all fine and good, but they do not put horses directly in the KentuckyDerby.

Nope. Reset the trip odometer to zero in New Orleans onSaturday night when the gates open for the Grade 2 feature at Fair Grounds.

Technically, mathematically, fussily, the Risen Star is nota win-and-you’re-in for the Derby. But honestly, frankly, really, it is. Takeall the winners of the 50-point preps like the Risen Star and the top two fromthe races that award 100 and 40 points for first and second, and there could be23 horses for the 20 places in the gate.

There could be, just as one of those 500-1 shots lingeringin the futures market in Las Vegas could win the Derby. But that will not happen.If it does, I will eat my words. Besides, sautéed thumb drives are easier toswallow these days than crispy newsprint.

Last year there also were 23 of those places worth at least40 points. Epicenter, actually earned two of those invitations. Six others RSVP’dregrets. That still left four places at the table for the likes of Tiz theBomb, Happy Jack, Pioneer of Medina and some horse named Rich Strike.

Wait, I hear a collective, cacophonous scream. “The pointssystem is different this year.”

True, but if the new scheme that rewards the top five fromeach prep instead of the top four had been applied last year, the exact samefield would have started the Derby. In fact, Rich Strike would not have neededthat 11th-hour defection by D. Wayne Lukas and Ethereal Road. He would have beenin the main draw.

So what is the point of all this? It is that we work ourselvesinto a lather every year for races like the Champagne and the Jerome and theLecomte, all because they come with the cachet of being a Kentucky Derby pointsprep. Ultimately, they mean nothing in the scheme of qualifying. I love thatour posting of the weekly standings lures a lot of readers, but to paraphrase anoverachieving rail splitter, the world will little note nor long remember whatwas said there.

As of Saturday, the process of Derby qualifying truly begins.The process of elimination, though, is another matter.

About a month before all hell broke loose with Medina Spiritin 2021, Bob Baffert offered wisdom that has stood the test of time both beforehandand since. Talking about the final preps, the ones worth 100 points to thewinners, he said, “You want to see them run first or second. You need to runfirst or second unless third was a troubled trip.”

Even Baffert’s harshest critics who will turn up beneaththis story cannot plausibly argue with that.

Taken another way, that means there is no urgency toqualifying for the Derby. Not right now. Remember, it was five years ago thisweekend when Justify made his debut – and not in a points race.

So what is a Derby prep? In truth, it is every race on thepast performances of every horse who winds up in the gate on the first Saturdayin May. Even Rich Strike’s last-place finish on the turf at Ellis Park on Aug. 15,2021, was a prep.

Good horseplayers are well aware of this. Or so I have heard.Every race tells a story, right? We should learn something from all of them,especially now. They do not even have to be graded stakes, listed stakes,black-type stakes or wannabe stakes.

It seems every week this winter there has been an allowancerace that has punched above its weight. The Lecomte undercard last month was aperfect example. Determinedly, Tapit’s Conquest, Silver Heist and Invulnerableall came out of an $80,000 race that day for non-winners of two. This weekendthey will be racing for Derby points in the Risen Star.

In turn, the eighth race on Saturday’s Fair Grounds undercardis an $80,000 “a other than” that looks sneaky good. The Godolphin homebredBanishing was made the morning-line favorite. He closed at 27-1 in last weekend’spari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager, and he is best-priced at 45-1 in LasVegas betting. Tapit Shoes and First Defender are no longer than 100-1 inNevada. Even Denington, who is 400-1 in Vegas, was a close fifth to Instant Coffeelast fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2).

There are plenty of reasons why good horses are landing inmiddling races. Brad Cox already had three starters pointed to the Risen Star, butTapit Shoes still had the conditions to avoid those stablemates and use thisallowance as a launch pad for one of next month’s big preps.

Steve Asmussen also had three horses ticketed for Saturday’sfeature, and First Defender has only the one race on his résumé. Throwing himinto the deep, Risen Star end of the pool would have been foolhardy.

There also is the not-so-insignificant matter of Lasix. Itis allowed in these undercard races but not in Fair Grounds stakes. Weaningyoung horses from the big L does not come with a one-size-fits-all formula.

The good news for horseplayers is that these races with the generic“Alw OC” label are another outlet for finding quality or value or maybe adiamond in the Derby futures rough. Hey, the eighth at Fair Grounds also startsthe late Pick 6.

So what’s in a name? That which we call a prep by any othername would smell just as sweet, especially if it provides some profitable contextin the coming hours, weeks and months.

Now that the points really are meaningful with races likethe Risen Star and next week’s Rebel and next month’s Fountain of Youth, maybewe will be blessed with an early and bountiful spring.