Florida Football: Can the SEC send two teams to the 2024 CFP?

It seems like the Southeastern Conference should regularly send two representatives to the annual four-team College Football Playoff, but the much-feared phenomenon has only happened twice.

Alabama and Georgia both made it in 2017-18 and again in 2021-22, while the most recent College Football Playoff featured two Big Ten teams, Michigan and Ohio State. While some fans dread a lack of diversity in playoff teams, it makes sense that the top teams play in the same conference as one another. Iron sharpens iron if you will.

So what are the odds that two teams from the same conference make it to the Final Four in the 10th and final year of the format?

(The CFP is expanding to 12 teams in 2024.)

Of course, ESPN has the answer, and the SEC is the overwhelming favorite to produce two playoff programs. ESPN’s Football Power Index says that there is a 51% chance for multiple SEC teams to make the playoffs, which is more than double the Big Ten’s odds (25%). The Big Ten has to rely on its two powerhouse programs to repeat, though, and every other conference has less than a 1% chance to get the job done.

Georgia not facing Alabama or LSU creates a clear path for the two-time reigning champs to reach the SEC title game, and there are plenty of scenarios for a second team to make it.

“It can happen if Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama or LSU roll through the regular season undefeated but lose in the SEC title game,” ESPN Senior Write Heather Dinch said. “It can also happen if Alabama doesn’t win the SEC but finishes with one loss and has a win over Big 12 champion Texas. Or if LSU doesn’t win the SEC, but finishes with one loss — at Alabama — and has a win over ACC champ Florida State.”

Unfortunately, the Gators aren’t involved in any of those scenarios and stand a better chance at playing upset to one of the serious contenders.

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