For Hockey Fans: Vegas Golden Knights 2023-23 Preview

The Vegas Golden Knights have been one of the league’s most successful regular season teams since entering the league, and heading into the 2022-23 season they were motivated by just missing the playoffs the season prior. It was a team that knew they would have a healthy Jack Eichel to start the season, and overall a pretty deep team with balance throughout the lineup. What they didn’t know is what a wild ride it would be for the goaltending, and how much a late offseason trade would impact the team’s fortunes. Entering this season the Golden Knights will have the majority of its core players back in the fold, with some youngsters looking to make their mark too, and they will look to defend the title it won back in June. With training camp almost here, now’s a great time for an early season preview.

How the Season Ended

I think everyone knows how the season ended, but for those who are new or partied too hard in the offseason, I will give you a quick refresher.

The Golden Knights narrowly captured the Pacific Division title over the Edmonton Oilers by two points, and entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They had a pretty easy run to the Stanley Cup Final, and ultimately dispatched the Florida Panthers with a 9-3 victory in Game 5 at T-Mobile Arena. Jonathan Marchessault was named the Conn Smythe Winner as playoffs MVP, and the Golden Knights ended the playoffs with an impressive 16-6 record en route to their first championship title.

Jonathan Marchessault wins Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVPThe Vegas Golden Knights completed a sensational postseason run with a 9-3 blowout win over the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final Tuesday night at T-Mobile Arena. It was the Golden…Tracing every move that built the 2023 Stanley Cup-winning Golden Knights lineupNote: This article features transactions directly related to the acquisition of all players who appeared in at least one game during the Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup run or who played in at least 35…

Roster Changes

This offseason saw some fan favorites depart the franchise like Reilly Smith and Phil Kessel. Some of the moves made were for salary cap reasons, and others because they no longer had a spot on the team. And for that reason there aren’t any new players who joined the organization externally, only potential players who could be promoted from within. The only exception is Maxime Comtois who is with the team on a PTO. Before going into specifics, here’s a quick look at the changes.

Out: Reilly Smith (F), Lauren Brossoit (G), Phil Kessel (F), Teddy Blueger (F), Nolan Patrick (F), Jonathan Quick (G)

In: Maxime Comtois (F) on a PTO

Expectations

The Golden Knights enter this season in a pretty comfortable spot after winning the Stanley Cup. Not only as the defending champs, but as a team that won the Stanley Cup in their 6th season as an NHL team. That doesn’t mean that the team isn’t going to try, but winning a title buys you a lot of breathing room. Most oddsmakers have the Golden Knights between +1000 and +1300 to repeat as Cup champions, with the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils, and Toronto Maple Leafs ahead of them.

I wouldn’t disagree with that just because of how hard it is to win back-to-back, and there’s also the question of whether or not the goaltending will be as good and/or as lucky as last season. I think they are expected to compete to win the Pacific Division title, but finishing within the top 3 and qualifying for the playoffs would be acceptable. With that said, I do think there are individual expectations for some key players of note.

Ivan Barbashev joined the Golden Knights at the trade deadline and fit in quite nicely by tallying a line of 6-10-16 in 23 regular season games. He came up big in the playoffs with a line of 7-11-18 in 22 games, and the team rewarded him with a 5-year deal that pays him $5 million a season and also includes a no-trade clause.

Golden Knights sign Barbashev to five-year, $25 million extensionThe Vegas Golden Knights have agreed to terms on a five-year, $25 million contract extension with forward Ivan Barbashev, the club announced Wednesday. The deal carries an AAV of $5 million.

The bet is that the Barbashev who showed up for the Golden Knights is the one they paid to extend, and not the one who was struggling in St. Louis. In 59 games with the Blues, Barbashev owned a slash line that included a 47.06 GF%, a 45.86 CF%, and a 44.06 xGF%. With the Golden Knights that line was 65.6, 45.6, and 50.94 respectively, with each being an improvement with the exception of puck possession.

Here’s a look at how Barbashev graded out last season using Evolving-Hockey’s player card, and then we’ll compare it to his last 3 seasons.

Overall it is a pretty mixed bag, because there’s some solid offensive numbers which are encouraging. The hope is that the team system in which Barbashev will be playing can make up for his defensive shortcomings, and maybe working with Bruce Cassidy and company will make him a better 200-foot player. He ultimately replaced Reilly Smith on the roster, and I can understand wanting to have a 27 year old as opposed to someone who just turned 32 and has likely peaked as a player.

Next up is Jack Eichel, a player that was limited to 67 games last season, and someone who still led the team in scoring in spite of that. Eichel will turn 27 in a few weeks, and his career high in points to date is 82 which was set during his 4th with the Buffalo Sabres. It is realistic to think that Eichel wants to stay as healthy as possible this season with the Golden Knights and set new career highs in the process.

The Golden Knights are a team that has generated offensive by committee, the top scorers behind Eichel were Chandler Stephenson (65 points), Marchessault (57 points), Smith (56 points), Alex Pietrangelo (54), and William Karlsson (53), so being a high-end point per game player may be easier said than done in this system. That doesn’t mean that Eichel won’t try, and if he stays healthy and performs at the level he did in the postseason, him setting new career highs is a very realistic goal.

Goaltending has the potential to be very interesting for a second year in a row, and the tandem expected to start the season is Adin Hill and Logan Thompson. Hill was rewarded for his heroics last season with a 2-year deal that pays him $4.9 million a season, and Thompson will serve as the backup making $766,667 a season. Robin Lehner is expected to go on LTIR, and not much news has been readily available regarding his status.

Golden Knights working to sign Adin Hill to 2-year extension at $4.9M, per reportThe Vegas Golden Knights are working on a deal to sign Stanley Cup champion backstop Adin Hill to a two-year extension with an AAV in the $4.9 million range, according to SportsNet’s Elliotte Friedman.

Thompson was very good for the Golden Knights in a small sample, and having him as a backup or 1B goalie is a huge advantage for Vegas.

He appears to be the team’s No. 1 goalie of the future, and it is possible he regains that role during the season. Hill was also good for the Golden Knights, but it is fair to question how much upside there is in a 27 year old that has been a career backup to date with varying degrees of success.

Hill’s cap hit of $4.9 million is pretty reasonable in the landscape of what goalies are paid, and I agree that letting him walk after helping to deliver the team a Stanley Cup is something that was unrealistic. It helps that that Thompson is making so little as the team, but if there’s a period in which Hill starts to look like an average backup goalie, I’d expect there to be a little criticism thrown his way.

The one defenseman that is most likely looking forward to start of this season is Zach Whitecloud.

Over the last few seasons, Whitecloud has appeared in 51, 59, and 59 games played. Injuries derailed him last season, and this year he will look to have a clean bill of health for the upcoming season. During the 2021-22 season, Whitecloud was worth 13.2 goals above replacement, but this past season he was worth just 0.5. Him rebounding would be great for him and the Golden Knights, and he has the potential to do it. You could probably say the same thing about Shea Theodore who finished with 41 points in the 55 games he played, as he would have pushed 60 had he played a full season.

Last, and certainly not least are Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson, two players without contracts beyond this season. This part isn’t so much an expectation, but rather something of interest worth keeping an eye on. Marchessault turns 33 in December, and Stephenson turned 29 this past April. Marchessault costs $5 million against the cap, and Stephenson is on a bargain deal at just $2.75 million.

Assuming the salary cap rises as expected, and the team doesn’t make significant changes to the current roster, the team would have $16,689,183 in space with 16 players under contract. Marchessault is one of the league’s underrated contributors who a 50 to 70 point player, and Stephenson has put up 64 and 65 points in his last two seasons, including 20 in 22 games during this most recent playoff run.

If both hit the market they are in a position to get a considerable raise, and it is possible that the team may only be in position to keep one of them. This upcoming season is very important for both players, as right now Marchessault projects to be the team’s No. 1 RW, and Stephenson the No. 2 center. Could the Golden Knights look to extend them at some point, or at the very least gauge their interest? It is possible. If I had to bet on one staying, I’d pick Marchessault as he seems like someone that deserves to end their career as a Golden Knight and one day have their jersey retired. Stephenson strikes me as someone who could potentially be a No. 1 center elsewhere.

Prediction for Season: 2nd in Pacific Division

A bit of a step back for the Golden Knights is something that is possible, and I think that this season the Edmonton Oilers are going to be back in the thick of things. Like last year, I think the Pacific Division is going to be close, and will be decided by a single digit spread. As things stand, here is the projected opening night lineup.

Ivan Barbashev — Jack Eichel — Jonathan Marchessault

Brett Howden — Chandler Stephenson — Mark Stone

Paul Cotter — William Karlsson — Michael Amadio

William Carrier — Nicolas Roy — Keegan Kolesar

Alec Martinez — Alex Pietrangelo

Brayden McNabb — Shea Theodore

Nicolas Hague — Zach Whitecloud

Adin Hill

Logan Thompson

If the Golden Knights play up to potential, and maybe even exceed it if youngsters like Brendan Brisson find a way into the lineup and exceed expectations, things could get interesting. But for the most part, I expect these lines to stay together. We saw how good they were in the playoffs, and over a full season you’d expect the synergy to get even better.

The same can be said about the defense, although with Martinez a pending UFA, it is possible they try and figure out how they are going to replace him long term by experimenting with the pairings. Hague has a lot of talent as a player, and he feels like a natural fit to step into that role.

Goaltending is a position that is high-variance in year over year production, outside of the elite starters, and any regression at that position could have a big impact on where the team finishes in the standings. This isn’t me saying that the wheels are all going to fall off, but I think the team was spoiled with how well things went last season with multiple goaltenders involved.

We’d love to know what you think, and if there’s a different perspective to consider. This is an early preview, and a lot can change between now and the end of the preseason. It will be great when there’s more actual hockey involving NHL players to evaluate, and can’t wait for the season to get underway.