Formula 1 Saudi Arabia Grand Prix odds, predictions, preview: Max Verstappen an overwhelming favorite
It’s been just one race, but there is already a familiar feeling to this Formula One season. After a season-opening race in which Red Bull got a 1-2 in both qualifying and the race, Max Verstappen and the energy drink cars are huge favorites both this weekend in Saudi Arabia and this season in general.
Is it premature to assume consecutive championships for Verstappen and Red Bull? Verstappen is already -400 (1-to-4) to win the drivers championship, which implies he has an 80% chance of winning the title. After one race! Red Bull is an even more overwhelming favorite at -500 (1-to-5).
Those numbers mean there isn’t much confidence in a competitive season developing in 2023. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the early odds is that Fernando Alonso, fresh off his third-place finish in Bahrain, is second in the odds for the drivers championship at +1000 (10-to-1), ahead of Charles Leclerc (+1200, 12-to-1) and Lewis Hamilton (+1400, 14-to-1).
F1 is still in the Middle East this weekend with a trip to Saudi Arabia. Verstappen won last year’s race after starting fourth on the grid. The big questions this year are about how much of a gap Red Bull has to the rest of the field and if Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin are actually quick enough to consistently compete near the top of the grid.
With Leclerc serving a 10-spot grid penalty, Alonso is third in the odds to win in Saudi Arabia, behind both Red Bulls. The lack of confidence in the Mercedes cars is staggering. Hamilton is 25-to-1 to win, even behind Leclerc, with Russell at 33-to-1.
Saudi Arabia Grand Prix odds
For what to expect from the Jeddah Corniche Circuit, The Athletic’s F1 crew answered some questions and made predictions for this weekend’s race.
Mercedes seems pretty down on its car. Do you believe their season is already doomed?
Luke Smith: “Doomed” is maybe a bit too strong, but the team is definitely much further back than it expected to be this early in the season. It has accepted the car concept is wrong, meaning gradual developments that got it into contention by the end of last season simply won’t cut it long-term. It could make for a tough short-term period for Mercedes as it works on car developments to get it back into proper contention. That’ll be a process that takes more than just a few races.
Jordan Bianchi: One race is a small sample size and so much can change in a short amount of time, nonetheless it does feel like Mercedes’ season is skidding in the wrong direction. And they’re heading in that direction at a rapid clip. It speaks volumes that Toto Wolff is already speaking publicly about essentially writing off 2023 to focus its attention on 2024.
Madeline Coleman: I agree with both Luke and Jordan. It is a 23-race season, and we’re only heading into Round 2. Plus, Bahrain has a different track compared to Saudi Arabia. That being said, Mercedes did not start off how it expected to this season, and car developments take time. I would not say they’re “doomed” in the long-run, but it will take time to recover.
Leclerc retired in the opening race and has a penalty this weekend. Verstappen is a staggering -400 (1-to-4) to win the championship. Is the championship practically a sure thing after just one race?
Smith: My first thoughts on seeing those odds were “wow that’s already very short” followed by “…but actually also still good value.” Verstappen and Red Bull looked dominant in Bahrain. If they maintain that level of form for the next few races, over different types of tracks and in different conditions, then it would make the title picture look very bleak.
Bianchi: Barring something unforeseen such as Verstappen missing a good number of races or Red Bull’s performance completely falling off a cliff, it’s hard not to see Verstappen as a lock to win a third straight championship. There is no conceivable way he should be considered anything less than the overwhelming favorite. Just go ahead and engrave his name on the trophy.
Coleman: There’s no denying Verstappen and Red Bull’s dominance in Bahrain. However, echoing the same caveat again, we’ve only seen one race and one specific track. We’re now heading to a street circuit and one that should play more towards Ferrari’s strengths. But if Red Bull can maintain the pace and tire management throughout the next several races and barring Ferrari or Aston Martin surging, I can see Verstappen running away with it. But it’s not something I’d say is a sure thing after one race.
Last year’s Saudi Arabia Grand Prix had one of the closer finishes of the season. What are the chances we get another tight race this weekend?
Smith: I’d be much more hopeful than in Bahrain. The layout should work to Ferrari’s strengths, giving Carlos Sainz hope of getting in the fight (Charles Leclerc will take a grid penalty), and the other factor is the street circuit layout. There has been a safety car in both editions of the race so far, which should bunch the field up. Incidents are going to happen.
Bianchi: If Leclerc wasn’t having to serve a grid penalty, then maybe we’d see a replay of last year’s finish. But with Leclerc likely starting well behind both Red Bulls, it’s hard to think anyone outside of Prez is going to be well positioned to give Verstappen a run for the win. And if both Red Bulls are vying for the victory, you have to think Red Bull will curb that by asking their drivers to back off to preserve their positions. So, no, don’t expect a close finish on Sunday.
Coleman: I feel more confident saying this can be a closer race than Bahrain because safety cars are inevitable. It’s a tight street circuit with 27 corners, leaving little room for error. But I’m more curious about how the midfield will look, especially when incidents happen and the field becomes more bunched up. It feels like the midfield is a tighter battle this season.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Saudi Arabia?
Smith: 1. Verstappen 2. Prez 3. Sainz
Bianchi: 1. Verstappen 2. Prez 3. Leclerc
Coleman: 1. Verstappen 2. Pérez 3. Sainz
