FPI: What are FSU's chances of winning each remaining game on the schedule?
Florida State enters the back half of the 2023 season with every objective still available. The Seminoles are undefeated and currently the frontrunner to win the ACC Championship, and are trending to make the College Football Playoff if wins keep stacking up.
The Seminoles could face several more ranked teams in the final stretch of the season – and definitely this weekend against No. 16 Duke – depending on how future opponents perform in some marquee games (i.e. Miami vs. Clemson, Florida vs. UGA, LSU, and Missouri).
Given FSU’s current resume and production, the Seminoles are legitimate playoff contenders. Here’s a look at how FSU is expected to fare the remainder of the season based on projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Current rank and resume
FSU is 9th nationally with an FPI of 21.8. That’s based on in-game efficiency (expected point margin vs. average opponent on a neutral field).
FSU’s resume, however, is more favorable with the Seminoles at No. 2 nationally for Strength of Record. FSU’s remaining Strength of Schedule is currently ranked at 53rd nationally.
DUKE - OCT. 21
Win Probability: 80%
FSU having an 80 percent chance of winning against a quality Top 25 opponent is interesting, but other analytics also reflect a similar level of confidence that the Seminoles can/will outclass Duke.
A big component to this: Does Riley Leonard play? And if he does play, how mobile is he?
AT WAKE FOREST - OCT. 28
Win Probability: 91.6%
Wake is on a three-game losing skid, with its lone competitive contest in that span surprisingly coming at Clemson.
AT PITT - NOV. 4
Win Probability: 86.5%
Pitt just controlled a game against Louisville, so this is a team worth monitoring over the next couple weeks (at Wake, at Notre Dame) after making a change at QB.
MIAMI - NOV. 11
Win Probability: 78.1%
FSU had a 64.7 percent chance of winning this game the last time we checked in during late September. Since then, FSU has done nothing but win and Miami has, well, done things that Miami often does.
Still, this looks like FSU’s hardest-remaining game on paper. The Hurricanes have their warts, but they are talented in the trenches and have enough skill talent to take seriously.
VS. NORTH ALABAMA - NOV. 18
Win Probability: 99.0%
FSU gets an FCS opponent before its rivalry game to end the season. North Alabama isn’t particularly good with a record of 2-5.
AT FLORIDA - NOV. 25
Win Probability: 80.8%
This Win Probability will probably fluctuate a good deal, one way or the other, depending on what Florida does in its four remaining SEC games: vs. No. 1 UGA, vs. Arkansas, at No. 19 LSU, at No. 20 Missouri.
Sink and that WP will trend higher into the 80s for FSU. Swim and maybe UF will have a 30-40% chance of winning at home.
What are FSU’s chances of winning out?
FSU has a 29.0 percent chance of winning its remaining regular-season games as well as the conference championship.
Additionally, FSU has a 61.4 percent chance of winning the ACC Championship. That’s the second-best probability of winning a Power Five conference title (Oklahoma is first at 63.8 percent).
What are FSU’s chances of making the CFP?
FSU currently has the third-highest probability of any team to make the College Football Playoff at 42.7 percent.
Oklahoma leads the pack at 69.3 percent, and then Ohio State is next at 56.2.
Teams with a 30-39 percent chance of making it are Washington, Penn State, Michigan, and Georgia.
What are FSU’s chances of making the Natty? Winning it?
FSU has an 18.5 percent chance of making it to the National Championship, which gives the Seminoles the third-best odds nationally behind Oklahoma (40.0 percent) and Ohio State (33.4 percent).
FSU has a 8.3 percent chance of winning the natty, which is behind Oklahoma (21.9 percent), Ohio State (19.3 percent), and Penn State (9.6).
