Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/16/2023
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.
On Tuesday night, the Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns 116-104, clinching a playoff spot in the process. Their defense was on point, as they held the Suns to 24 or fewer points in 3 of the 4 quarters, outscoring them 31-20 in the 4th to secure the victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 36 points, while Brook Lopez dropped 21, going a perfect 9/9 from 2-point range.
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From a betting perspective, we went a perfect 2-0. The Bucks covered the 2-point spread with ease, and the total stayed well Under the 232.5 mark. We are now up 14.4 Units this season, as the quest to finish 20 Units positive remains alive.
Tonight, the Bucks (50-19) welcome the Indiana Pacers (31-38) to Milwaukee. The Pacers are battling for their place in the play-in tournament, as they are just 1 game back of the 10th place Washington Wizards. Tyrese Haliburton is the cornerstone of their offense, scoring 20.8 PPG to go along with his 10.4 Assists. The young guard hasn’t shied away from being the number 1 option in Indiana, and the youthful core has the Pacers on an upward trajectory for years to come. While they are still fighting for the opportunity to participate in the play-in tournament, the Pacers are well aware of their realistic expectations for this season. Not only are the Pacers facing a tough road test in Milwaukee, but Haliburton, Buddy Heild, and Myles Turner are all questionable, while Benedict Mathurin is out. There are no other players averaging double digit scoring on the Pacers, so if their stars can’t go, this won’t be much of a contest.
The Bucks have now won 21 of their last 23 games and are brimming with confidence with the playoffs less than a month away. Antetokounmpo is borderline unstoppable, and the depth on Milwaukee's bench has paid dividends. The trio of big men in Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Bobby Portis is very effective, and the depth at guard allows the Bucks to play a high intensity defense, without tiring out. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are both All-Star caliber players, and few teams in the league have the luxury of bringing players like Pat Connaughton and Jae Crowder off the bench.
While the Bucks knew they had talent coming into the season, the emergence of Lopez and Holiday was unexpected. When Middleton was forced to sit the first half of the season, Lopez and Holiday, both of whom are elite defenders, were given more chances on the offensive end. They were suddenly the second and third options, and when the ball wasn’t in Antetokounmpo’s hands, they had a chance to shine. Both players are averaging the most PPG in their respective Bucks tenures, and the addition of the 3 ball in Lopez’s game has made him one of the toughest assignments in the league. A player like Turner on the Pacers may have the size to slow him down inside, but lacks the footwork to chase him off the 3PT line.
In this matchup, there is no doubt in my mind that the Bucks will emerge victorious. The Pacers have several players questionable, and if I was coaching that team, unloading the tank and risking future injuries in a game they will probably lose anyways is not ideal. While every victory is critical for the Pacers, they know they are outmatched here and I wouldn’t be surprised if they unload the bench and rest the starters.
The moneyline on Milwaukee is an unplayable -1100, and the spread is set at 13.5 points. I personally am not a fan of betting these large spreads, as a 20-point 4th quarter Milwaukee lead is still vulnerable to the backdoor cover. Instead, I’ll be targeting the first half spread of 8 points. The Bucks will not take their foot off the gas in the first half, and considering the Pacers injuries, they should be able to build up a double digit first half lead.
The second bet for the night is Khris Middleton Under 20.5 Points. This is a very high total for Middleton, as he’s only eclipsed this mark in 2 of his last 9 games. It is very clear the Bucks are managing his knee injury, and if this game is won in the first half, Middleton will likely sit for the rest of the game. If he was going to play starter minutes, I’d lean towards the Under, but considering he won’t step onto the court in the 4th, I’m loving this bet.
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks 1H (-8) 1 Unit
Pick: Khris Middelton Under 20.5 Points 3 Units
2022-23 Season Record:
ML Record: 11-9
Spread Record: 13-11
Total Record: 7-10
Player Props Record: 24-20
Total: 55-52
Up 14.4 Units ($1440)
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