Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/12/2024

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On Friday night, the Knicks were able to flex their defensive muscles en route to a 98-74 victory over the Orlando Magic. The 74 points allowed was a season low across the league, with Precious Achiuwa leading the way defensively, posting 2 steals and 5 blocks. Jalen Brunson made his return from a nagging knee injury, and he was very efficient from the floor, shooting 11/19 to score 26 points in 28 minutes of action.

From a betting perspective, we went 1-1. We layed 5 units on the Magic securing the victory, but a late scratch to Jalen Suggs and a doubtful Jalen Brunson suiting up shifted the odds in favor of New York. We correctly called that the total would stay Under 206, earning some of those losses back. The Knicks may not have their full lineup available, but with defensive performances like that, they will always give themselves a chance to pull out the victory.

Days after setting the season record with just 74 points allowed, the Knicks fell to the 76ers 79-73 on Sunday night. The first quarter finished level at 15 points apiece, before the 76ers took a 37-31 lead into the break. The Knicks shot just 32% from the floor. And while every loss will sting, I’m sure Tom Thibodeau will be encouraged by the lockdown defense his team has displayed on that end of the court.

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Tonight, the Knicks (37-27) and the 76ers (36-28) run it back at Madison Square Garden, as both teams jockey for playoff positioning down the stretch. This matchup isn’t what it could’ve been, as Joel Embiid remains out for Philadelphia, while Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are both still on the shelf for the Knicks. With both team’s bigs on the bench, the marquee matchup will go down on the perimeter, as Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey go toe-to-toe. Maxey is the front runner for MIP this season, as he’s taken massive strides forward and cemented himself as the number 2 option behind Embiid. His 26 PPG and 6.3 Assists are on track to obliterate his career highs, and Maxey will have a huge role to play down the stretch if Embiid is unable to come back for Philly. His lightning quick reflexes and inhuman agility allow him to blow past defenders on a regular basis, but Maxey still has plenty to work on before he’s a suitable co-star for any legitimate NBA contender. While his usage has skyrocketed, his efficiency has plummeted this season. His FG% and 3-point percentage has dropped by 3 and 6 percent, respectively, and he’s turning the ball over far more often than he has any other season of his career. As the usage goes up, it’s natural for the efficiency to drop slightly, as Maxey has been tasked with creating his own shots deep in the shot clock, but this kind of drop off isn’t normal. I’m honestly a little confused as to why Maxey is the frontrunner for MIP, as while his role has increased this season with James Harden gone, he hasn’t really gotten much better.

For the Knicks, they’re getting a real boost as OG Anunoby is expected to suit up for the first time since January 27. The Knicks traded for Anunoby in the final days of 2023, and the move immediately paid dividends, as New York went 12-2 in Anunoby’s first month with the team. His injury led to an 8-10 run since, and the defensive powerhouse will make an already defensive team even better. It will allow the Knicks to avoid going as deep into their bench, as the lack of depth from the Anunoby trade had a serious effect on them over the last month and a half. The one positive from the absences of Anunoby and Randle has been the emergence of Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo has seen his minutes increase and has taken full advantage of his small window to succeed. The former Warrior has found a home in New York and is on track to top his career highs in PPG, FG%, and 3PT%. While his role will likely be as a 6th man when the Knicks are fully healthy, having a weapon like DiVincenzo coming off the bench could be the difference-maker when the Knicks inevitably are tasked with getting past the East’s top contenders.

This one was a real defensive battle on Sunday, and both teams will be hoping they have figured out a way to unlock the opposing defensive scheme. There were countless missed open shots for both teams. And while a 125-120 barnburner shouldn’t be expected, there should be some regression back to the mean. The introduction of Anunoby back into the lineup will not make things any easier for the 76ers, but Maxey was forced to sit out on Sunday with a concussion, so both teams will be confident they can pick up a win. The 76ers lack the interior offense to give the Knicks issues in the paint. And unless they get red hot from deep, which feels unlikely with Anunoby on Maxey, New York should be able to hold Philly to double digits once again. The Knicks continue to find ways to get the job done, regardless of who’s available, and a shorthanded 76ers team is the perfect candidate for a vintage Knicks victory. The spread is coming in a 6 points in favor of the Knicks, and that is a number I can get behind. New York has been able to win without their stars, something the 76ers have struggled with. Tobias Harris and Maxey are not good enough to counter the elite guard play from Brunson and DiVincenzo. And without any advantage inside, the 76ers are seriously behind the 8 ball. This one will probably stay closer for longer than it should, but the Knicks will complete the mini-sweep at home, covering the reasonable spread in the process.

The second bet of the night will be Donte DiVincenzo Under 16.5 points. The return of Anunoby will see DiVincenzo get slightly fewer minutes than he’s used to tonight, and that isn’t being accurately reflected in this line. He’s cashed this line in only 4 of his last 9 games. And while his 14.4 PPG is a career high, his PPG goes down to just 13.5 with Anunoby is in the lineup. In what should be another tight, defensive game, this line is a couple points too high.

Pick: New York Knicks (-6) 3 Units

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Under 16.5 Points +100 3 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 10-4

Spread Record: 19-16

Total Record: 13-10

Player Props Record: 16-30

Total: 58-60

Down 6.2 Units

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