French Open 2023: Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic Co-Favorites, Could Be Drawn To Meet In Semifinals
World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 3 Novak Djokovic are virtual co-favorites at the upcoming French Open and could be drawn to meet in the semifinals.
Alcaraz is a slight favorite at +148 followed by Djokovic at +180, per bookmaker.eu, They are followed by Holger Rune (+875), Daniil Medvedev (+1025), Jannik Sinner (+1150) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1250).
The tournament has opened up now that Rafael Nadal, the 14-time French Open champion and world No. 15, has withdrawn due to injury and may not play again until next year.
The draw is set for Thursday and the main draw kicks off Monday in Paris.
“I don't consider Novak the clear-cut favorite,” two-time Roland Garros champion Jim Courier said Tuesday on a Tennis Channel conference call. “I think he and Alcaraz for me are co-favorites on the men's side.”
Much will depend on whether Djokovic — the 22-time Grand Slam champion and two-time French Open winner who is bidding to surpass Nadal for the all-time lead in Slams — lands on Alcaraz’s side of the draw.
Medvedev, the world No. 2 fresh off winning the Italian Open over Rune on Sunday, will be in the opposite half of the draw from Alcaraz, and could also see Djokovic in his half.
“I think the most interesting aspect of the draw ceremony will be at the moment to determine which half had Djokovic goes into,” Courier said. “Medvedev winning Rome, that put him back at No. 2. That obviously makes that important.
“I'm sure neither Alcaraz nor Djokovic want to see that semifinal as a possibility. Clearly understanding that they might have to play each other to get the title anyway, and does it really matter whether it's the semis or the finals? Not really.”
While there was much hype about a possible Alcaraz-Djokovic final in Rome, neither player made it that far. Alcaraz was upset by world No. 135 Fabian Marozsan in the round of 32 in arguably the biggest upset of the year.
Djokovic lost to eventual finalist Rune in the quarterfinals, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, but Courier said he did not seem to be bothered by the right elbow injury which required him to wear a sleeve in Monte Carlo, where he lost last month to Italian Lorenzo Musetti.
“I thought Novak's health looked pretty good in Rome,” Courier said. “He didn't seem to have the sleeve on as much. He seemed to be fine with his serve numbers, his forehand numbers, backhand numbers. All looked normal.
“So I think overall his health and confidence are trending in the right direction and best of five just gives all these supreme players more time to problem-solve if they run into a hot player.”
Outside of the big names, Courier likes American Sebastian Korda, ranked No. 29 in the world, as a dark horse to win the title in Nadal’s absence. Korda has never been past the fourth round in Paris (2020) or the quarterfinals at any major.
Courier also likes Rune, the Italian Open runner-up and world No. 6, and Sinner, the Italian ranked No. 8 who reached three major quarterfinals in 2022 (but not in Paris).
“I like those two young guys believing in themselves,” he said. “I might give Rune the slight edge in that belief department just because he is younger, he is fresher, and kind of when you are young and fresh like that, you don't really worry about what might have been. You just go, oh, this might be. There's real value to that.”
One thing’s for sure: Without Nadal in the tournament, someone else will lift the trophy on June 11.
“There's opportunity now at Roland Garros with Rafa not in the draw,” Courier said. “I mean, look, we don't know what level Rafa would have been able to bring had he been healthy enough to give it a go, but he is still Rafa there, and there's an intimidation factor that is clear.
“Now there's a little bit of open space.”
