FROM OFF THE PACE: Odds and ends going into the 149th Derby

It has been a rough run-up to Kentucky Derby 149.

On Thursday, one week after Derby qualifier Wild On Ice was euthanized after being injured in a workout at Churchill Downs, three more horses were scratched from the race. Political Move, one of the favorites, was scratched by trainer Tim Yakteen after spiking a temperature. Japanese hope Continuar was scratched by trainer Yoshito Yahagi because of a perceived lack of fitness. The third horse, 59-1 Wood Memorial upset winner Lord Miles, was scratched by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission after two other horses under the care of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. died under “unusual circumstances.” Joseph was suspended from running horses at all CDI tracks “until further notice.”

The three scratched horses were replaced by also-eligibles King Russell, Mandarin Hero and Cyclone Mischief.

On Friday, a fourth horse was scratched when trainer John Shirreffs announced that Skinner had an “elevated temperature.” Since there are no other also-eligibles available, the Derby field stands at 19 – as of noon Saturday.

When the morning-line was announced on Tuesday, Forte, who is working on a five-race winning streak (four of them G1s), was the expected and deserving favorite at 3-1. The second choice was Tapit Trice, winner of his last four starts, at 5-1. Angel of Empire, who swept Santa Anita’s two major preps, was pegged at 8-1.

Next, at 10-1 on the morning-line, was Derma Sotogate, winner of the UAE Derby by more than five lengths. While some may be surprised to see a Japan-bred colt rated this high, Japanese horses have had so much recent success internationally that oddsmakers may have been wary of not showing this horse enough respect.

At the other end of the morning line were Raise Cain, Sun Thunder, Reincarnate and Jace’s Road, all dismissed at 50-1. It is worth remembering, though, that longshots have done well in the Derby since Justify completed a six-race winning streak by post-time favorites in 2018. Winners of the four Derbies since included Country House (65-1) and Mandaloun (26-1), both of whom were declared winners after disqualifications of the first horses to cross the finish line, and Authentic at a relatively low 8-1.

Most famous of the four, of course, was Rich Strike, whose Derby win at 80-1 last year qualified as the second-biggest upset in the race’s history. The son of Keen Ice performed well enough over the rest of the year – finishing fourth in the BC Classic and Travers and second in the Lukas Classic – to suggest his Derby victory was no fluke.

As trainers of over a third of this year’s Kentucky Derby field (seven of the 20 expected starters), Todd Pletcher and Brian Cox figure to be the two busiest guys at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Pletcher’s charges include the two morning-line favorites, Forte and Tapit Trice, as well as unbeaten Kingsbarns, who has yet to be tested in three starts. Pletcher’s two previous Derby scores came with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017.

Cox’s herd is led by Angel of Empire (8-1), third choice on the morning line. Cox also will be hustling to saddle Verifying (15-1), Hit Show (30-1) and Jace’s Road (50-1), who drew in with the withdrawal of Blazing Sevens. Cox’s Derby win came in 2021, when Mandaloun was moved up to first with the DQ of Medina Spirit.

The current list of top jockeys (by earnings) includes five prominent riders, all ranked among the top seven, who have yet to win a Kentucky Derby. Together the five – Irad Ortiz Jr, Luis Saez, Tyler Gaffalione, Manny Franco and Jose Ortiz – have ridden in 31 Derbies without a victory.

Most of them have come close. Saez was aboard Maximum Security when he crossed under the wire first in the 2019 Derby but was disqualified to 17th for interference. Manny Franco and Jose Ortiz have both ridden Derby runners-up, Franco with Tiz the Law in 2020 and Ortiz with Epicenter last year. Saez was aboard Essential Quality when he ran third in 2021. Irad Ortiz came closest with Improbable when he finished fourth in 2019. Gaffalione’s best finish was an eighth on War of Will in 2019.

All five jockeys have mounts in this year’s Derby. On paper Irad Ortiz, who will be aboard m/l favorite Forte for the sixth straight race, has the best chance of ending his Derby drought. Luis Saez will ride second choice Tapit Trice for the fourth time. Assignments for the other three top riders seeking their first Derby win include Jose Ortiz (Kingsbarns), Tyler Gaffalione (Verifying) and Manny Franco (Hit Show).