Game 3 Golden Knights vs. Stars playoff picks: Fade offence as series shifts to Dallas
The Dallas Stars are down 0-2 to the Vegas Golden Knights and in desperate need of a win.
The pregame narrative: Games 1 and 2 needed overtime, but both games finished with Vegas on top. Offence has been fairly difficult to come by in this series, leading us to fade all three of Alex Pietrangelo, Reilly Smith and Tyler Seguin.
NHL odds as of 12:06 p.m. on 05/22/2023.
Golden Knights vs. Stars picks
Best Bet: Smith to not score 1+ point (-125)
Fading Smith was our best bet in Game 1 and we’re doing it again in Game 3.
The Golden Knights winger is pointless through the first two games of this series. His deployment is a big reason for that, as he plays on the team’s third line. Head coach Bruce Cassidy uses this trio — featuring Smith, William Karlsson and Nicolas Roy — as a shutdown line, meaning their top priority is typically defence.
Despite placing fourth among Vegas forwards in average ice time (17:19) through the first couple of games, bettors should continue to wager against him. His lack of usage on the power play (45 seconds through two games vs. Dallas) is a major concern.
It’s not like this is a game where the Golden Knights should thrive offensively, either. Their team total is sitting at just 2.5 for Game 3.
Key stat: Smith is sixth in expected goals (0.5) for Vegas in this series, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Quick picks
Pietrangelo to not score a point (-129): There’s a lot of overlap in our reasonings to fade Smith and Pietrangelo.
Like Smith, Pietrangelo’s main responsibility is on the defensive side of the puck. He’s also no longer on the top power play, as Shea Theodore is now quarterbacking that unit. He has been on the ice for just 39 seconds during the man advantage through the first two games.
Pietrangelo isn’t lighting it up offensively, either, with just two points over his last six outings.
Seguin to not score 1+ point (-121): Starting to notice a pattern here?
Usage and deployment continue to be the theme of our picks. Seguin is averaging the sixth-fewest minutes per game (14:38) among Stars forwards in this series, the main explanation for his pointless performance thus far.
He’s not on the top power play or inside the top-six forwards, which are two major knocks against his chances at getting on the board.
