Georgia Still College Football Betting Favorite After Shaky Start
Through one month of the college football season, the national title picture looks relatively open. Georgia, the two-time defending national champion, still sits atop the AP Top 25 poll, but the Bulldogs have flashed signs of weakness early in the year.
The Big Ten boasts three Top 10 teams, while the Pac-12 puts six in the Top 20. There’s also a belief among AP Top 25 voters that Texas is back to national relevance, with the Longhorns ranked third entering Week 6 of the season.
With the calendar flipping to October, let’s take a look at the updated sports betting odds for notable college football races.
National title outlook
FanDuel, one of the many mobile sportsbooks with robust college football odds, lists five teams with odds of +1000 or shorter to win the national championship. Georgia (+300) is the favorite, with Michigan (+400) close behind. Ohio State (+750), Texas (+750), and Florida State (+950) are viewed as other current contenders.
Action Network’s Michael Calabrese is high on Penn State, which is +1400 to win the national title at Caesars Sportsbook and +1500 at BetRivers. Behind a strong defense and quarterback Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions are 5-0, with all five wins coming by at least 17 points. They’ll play at Ohio State on Oct. 21.
“Manny Diaz’s defense leads the nation in HAVOC and success rate on defense,” Calabrese told Sports Handle. “The second piece of the puzzle was Drew Allar, and the true sophomore has lived up to the hype. He protects the football (9:0 TD-INT ratio) and lit up Iowa in a 31-0 blowout. Only one other quarterback has thrown for four touchdowns against Iowa in the past four-and-a-half years and that was Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.”
The Nittany Lions are 5-0 against the spread this season.
The Pac-12 can’t be discounted either. Washington’s elite offense makes it a top-tier team, and the Huskies’ title odds are +1600 at bet365. Oregon and USC can both be found at +2000 on BetRivers. The Ducks look like a more complete team than USC, which has major defensive question marks. Oregon, like Penn State, is 5-0 against the spread this year.
Colorado, which has captivated betting interest in 2023, has dropped consecutive games. As a result, the Buffaloes aren’t considered a title threat after a fast start to the season.
A BetMGM spokesperson told Sports Handle that Alabama is one of the operator’s biggest liabilities, with 33% of money wagered on national title futures being placed on the Crimson Tide. Alabama is +2500 at FanDuel and PointsBet.
Fanatics Sportsbook has Alabama at +265 to win the SEC championship, with only georgia (-105) having shorter odds. The Crimson Tide are slim favorites this weekend against Texas A&M, with DraftKings listing Nick Saban’s team as a 1.5-point favorite.
Pac-12 Heisman candidates
As for the Heisman Trophy race, it runs through the Pac-12.
Last year’s winner, USC quarterback Caleb Williams, is the favorite across mobile sportsbooks with +200 odds or shorter. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is +450 to win the award at BetMGM, while Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has +1000 odds to claim the trophy at BetRivers.
It wouldn’t come as a surprise if a Pac-12 quarterback wins the Heisman Trophy in December, although picking which of the top three might win the honor presents a challenge.
Scrolling deeper down the odds board gives bettors a chance to choose from other quarterbacks who might win the trophy, but Calabrese says not to count out Georgia tight end Brock Bowers just yet. One of the most talented players in the country, Bowers won’t be competing against a star running back or even a quarterback on his own team for attention. He’s far and away the best offensive player on Georgia’s roster, but he has odds of +10000 to win the trophy at BetRivers.
“Bowers has exploded in the past two-and-a-half games, putting the entire offense on his back,” Calabrese said. “In those ten quarters, he’s caught 23 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winner at Auburn. At present, their schedule features four ranked opponents, and the Dawgs could return to Atlanta for another high-profile opportunity in the SEC title game. He’ll have a chance for more Heisman moments, and at 100/1, he’s worth a play.”
Under-the-radar ATS stars
A few teams boast impressive early-season records against the spread, including several outside Power Five conferences. Calabrese is impressed with Texas State, which is a strong 4-1 against the spread during the early portion of the season.
A coaching change and revamped roster via the transfer portal helped the Bobcats and new head coach G.J. Kinne transform a Sun Belt dud into one of the top teams in the conference.
“They have the 13th-most efficient offense from a success rate perspective and an explosive running game (5th),” Calabrese said. “In the Sun Belt, they remain under the radar, and despite an early upset of Baylor, they continue to be priced favorably against the spread.”
UNLV (5-0 ATS) and Jacksonville State (5-1 ATS) are other Group of Five teams surpassing betting expectations on a nearly weekly basis so far this fall.
