Glorious Goodwood 2023: Day 2 Preview, Pointers, Picks geegeez.co.uk

On to Day 2, Wednesday, at the Qatar Goodwood Festival, or Glorious Goodwood to me and probably you. One of the features of the week, if not the feature, is the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at 3.35, and that clash of the generations and the sexes is supported by a trio of 'shoulder' races either side. The action gets underway at 1.50 with the...

1.50 Coral Handicap (1m4f, Class 2, 3yo only)

A three-year-old weight-for-ability contest over twelve furlongs would not be my 'go to' punting puzzle. This, however, is not your average such race. Indeed, previous winners Pether's Moon and Dartmouth ended up high class Group winners and are now enjoying careers as stallions; so it can be an instructive affair. Some pointers pulled from the trends at horseracebase.com as well as our own Goodwood Day 2 trends:

A low draw has typically been advantageous for all that two of the last four winners emerged from double digit berths. The top three in the betting have fared better than expectations, and horses finishing first or second last time have also bossed things. Team Johnston has won three of the last ten and five since 2008, none of them returning shorter than 6/1: they are triply represented. Sir Michael Stoute also has five winners and another eight placed from 22 starters, while Charlie Appleby has a winner and two places from six starters.

Horses last racing at Newmarket's July course or Ascot have much the best record, though those from Newmarket have offered a touch more value.

It's a really tough race to call, for me at least, with virtually the entire field capable of more than they've demonstrated to date; so at the prices perhaps the Sir Michael Stoute angle is the one. His Fox Journey is 15/2 in a place. But I have no clue really.

2.25 Oak Tree Stakes (7f, Group 3, 3yo+)

A pretty strong draw bias race is the Oak Tree Stakes, the winners since 1997 emerging from the following stalls: 2-2-1-10-3-6-1-5-10-10-9-2-2-9-10-1-1-1-6-6-1-5-1-2-2-2. There's a lot of 1's and 2's in that sequence without us thinking we've found the oracle (plenty of 9's and 10's to keep feet on the ground). But 14 of those 26 winners did exit one of the two lowest traps, and they accrued better than 51 units profit collectively.

Internationalangel was a neck second from stall 10 last year when a 66/1 chance, and has box two this time; geegeez-sponsored Marco Ghiani rides. Oscula represented Nick Bradley Racing when winning last year and jumped from stall 2. This year, the same connections have Fast Response exiting the inside gate: lucky Nick.

It's been a fair race for overseas runners, too, specifically from the French yard of Francois Rohaut: he saddled the winner three years running between 2015 and 2017. Add to that Samahram, trained by Francois-Henri Graffard, who would have won with a clear passage last year; and 25/1 Rocques who was fourth of 17 in 2019. Alas, the overseas raiders have had a torrid time at the draw, Samedi Rien getting stall 13 and Sicilian Defense drawing 15 of 16. Only the luckless Matilda Picotte fared worst, with the car park post position.

Breege has stall 3 and was second in a 7f Group 3 here last August. She handles soft ground and is a definite contender.

3.00 Molcomb Stakes (5f, Group 3, 2yo)

Rapid fire sprint action and low may be slightly favoured in terms of stall positions. Big Evs has the highest gate but he's lightning from the start and wasn't stopping at Royal Ascot when making all in the Windsor Castle. He almost overcame an even worse draw at Redcar on debut so that is unlikely to be his undoing. Kyllian is a highly legitimate challenger but Big Evs has achieved plenty more so far and is less exposed after only two career starts.

Barnwell Boy is probably better than he showed when midfield behind Big Evs - he won his maiden here over six - but it's hard to see him reversing places with the winner that day. The rest need to grow a fifth leg on form, but all are entitled to improve to one degree or another.

Big Evs is favourite in my book and about 6/4, but he's 5/2 with the actual layers right now. That looks wrong for all that he has to prove he handles very different underfoot conditions.

3.35 Sussex Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo+)

The feature of the day is a mile showdown between the Classic generation, represented by the Irish 2000 Guineas / St James's Palace Stakes / Eclipse winner, Paddington, and the Fillies' Mile / Coronation Stakes / Prix Jacques le Marois winner, Inspiral.

As a three-year-old, Paddington gets weight from Inspiral, but only four pounds because she is a filly. They have had hugely differing campaigns, Paddington lining up for the sixth time in 2023 here while Inspiral has just her second spin of the year.

And then Paddington has recorded a six-timer improving from run to run while Inspiral has been a touch inconsistent. On her best form she's a danger to the three-year-old champ, especially if he feels the effects of his busy campaign. But there was no sign of fatigue as Paddington toughed it out against a strong stayer in Emily Upjohn last time. That one clunked in the King George at the weekend and it is certainly not impossible that the effort exerted by the winner that day could flatten his energies here.

Inspiral looks a touch over-priced at 4/1 given the busy schedule Coolmore's flagbearer has maintained hitherto.

But there is an outlying scenario where neither of the obvious two turn up. It's unlikely but the picture I've tried to paint above is that it's not extremely unlikely. After all, look what happened to Auguste Rodin and Emily Upjohn on Saturday. Who, then, might be able to take advantage of such a scenario?

With Chindit having blown out twice at this track, albeit on much faster turf, Aldaary perhaps preferring a straight track as when he won the Balmoral Handicap up the straight mile at Ascot, French raider Facteur Cheval is interesting at a price. He handles soft ground - naturellement as it's always soft in France - and, though he's been beaten three times by the same horse recently, he does have a solid turn of foot. Maxime Guyon takes over from Gerald Mosse and perhaps will time his challenge better than the veteran has done.

Charyn ran a bold race when third in the St James's Palace Stakes but he, too, has had a hard campaign and might favour a shorter trip; that said, with no obvious pace angle in the field it may ride more like seven furlongs.

The obvious form horse is Paddington and if he turns up as we know him, he wins. But there are reasons to think he might not, in which case Inspiral is certainly worth a small bet at 4/1. Each way and/or without the favourite players might look to Facteur Cheval as a sporting alternative in a fascinating and high class contest, on paper at least.

4.10 Alice Keppel Fillies' Conditions Stakes (5f, Class 2, 2yo)

The fifth renewal of this, features of the first four being top two-year-olds trainers and commensurately short prices. After that, I'm afraid you're pretty much on your own.

4.45 British EBF Fillies' Handicap (1m2f, Class 2, 3yo+)

A race in its eighth year. Ralph 'Raif' Beckett has won two, from just three runners; three-year-olds have won four of the first seven (they've also been responsible for 37 of 63 runners - near enough three-fifths - so not much of note there, except that they've arguably underperformed).

Red Raif runs La Isla Mujeres, who will probably race handily, a feature of three of the four winners. She might offer a fair run for money at 9/2, though I clearly haven't scoured the form with a fine-toothed comb: caveat emptor.

5.20 World Pool Handicap (7f, Class 3, 3yo+)

More like it. A big field brings draw into play, sort of. This has been won in the past ten years in two ways: either an inside post racing handily or making all, or a middle to wide draw being waited with and pouncing late. Looking at the pace map there are quite a few whose recent run style profile does not adhere to that very blunt identikit sketch:

We might give Dark Thirty a point, and then perhaps the likes of Haziym, Baileysgutfeeling, Classic, Farasi Lane and, perhaps, Darkness if ridden patiently, before looking at some actual form. Plenty of that list have shown little to nothing recently, though Haziym is tumbling from a high mark earned in France. Two which have run well lately are Darknessand Dark Thirty, though they're very far from dark Dark horses, if you see what I mean. Splitting a pound between the pair ought to give you one to shout early and hopefully one to challenge him late in a race that appears to have a fair bit of dead wood.

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It looks tenuous tickle territory pretty much all day. Paddington will shock nobody by winning but he is opposable with Inspiral; I am cheering Big Evs at value odds against Kyllian et al; and after that maybe dutching Breege and Fast Response will get a couple of quid back. The rest is even more guesswork than usual on my part!