Glorious Goodwood: six mudlarks to note on Saturday
With prolonged heavy rain set to hit Goodwood on Saturday morning, Danny Archer (DA) and Tom Thurgood (TT) identify six runners set to deal with conditions better than most on the final day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
The ground has dried out at Goodwood in recent days - it looked a bit sticky on Friday though Timeform described the surface as good to soft towards the end of the card - but the rain is due to return and with something of a vengeance for the day-five finale at the Qatar Goodwood Festival on Saturday.
There has been 20mm of rainfall at the track in the last seven days and the Met Office forecast suggests an overwhelming likelihood of rain from around 6am on Saturday morning through until nearly midday, with further showers in the afternoon.
Speaking after racing on Thursday, clerk of the course Ed Arkell said: "It will be thundery, showery stuff to start with, then a more consistent band of rain mid to late morning, and then reverting to heavy, potentially thundery showers during the afternoon.”
On Friday's conditions, his verdict was “sticky, tacky" ground.
"It is that sort of ground that has been very wet and then dried quite quickly. I think the course has held up unbelievably well and it is credit to the grounds team how well it has ridden, given what’s happened [weather-wise].”
It's fair to expect pretty testing conditions at best on the Downs for day five then and, with that in mind, Danny Archer (DA) and Tom Thurgood (TT) pick out six contenders who are set to deal with conditions better than most.
MUSIC SOCIETY
This eight-year-old veteran of 68 races has gone well in testing conditions on several occasions previously, with his form on soft ground or heavier reading 12052402312.
His overall form is below that of some of his more unexposed rivals in this Stwards' Cup consolation race, but these conditions could prove something of a leveller if the forecast even proves mostly correct and he's still been running with credit this term, including when only two and three-quarter lengths behind Zaman Jemil at Thirsk last month. (DA)
TORCELLO
This thorough stayer has form figures of 1202 on his four runs on heavy ground on the Flat, but he's raced on ground described as Soft or slower on 30 of his Flat turf or jumps runs. Of his 10 career wins, six have come on at soft ground or worse.
His form that season doesn't read too badly at all, either - he just beaten by HMS President and Adjuvant in a strong handicap on the Rowley Mile back in May and they're among the market principals for this assignment, while this course winner and pace-setter could dictate matters here under excellent front-running rider Joe Fanning (finished first and second on just two rides aboard Torcello).
He has to bounce back from a below-par effort last time, though that came after a 68-day break and his record after absences of 50 days or more reads 6020060086. That runner-up effort was on heavy ground.
His current mark is not a 'gimme' but it's about workable - he defied a higher rating than this at this track a few years ago - and he holds each-way interest at 22-1 quotes. (TT)
LUISA CASATI
First of all, the favourite.
Free Wind is a very high-class mare who disappointed against the boys in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot on quick ground last time, with that effort coming after a huge performance on quick ground at her minimum trip of 10 furlongs (and in a falsely-run race too) on her long-awaited return in the Middleton at York - form which additionally has worked out really strongly.
This is significantly easier and she has soft ground form so should take some beating, but Luisa Casati is worth a look in 'without the favourite' markets given she is a five-year-old who holds more experience than most of these while this mare - unlike most of these - has run several times on soft ground.
Luisa Casati has run on soft ground on five of her 10 career starts and this course winner from earlier in the season shaped a bit better than the result when fifth in the Yorkshire Oaks on her first try at Group Two level last time, finishing fifth when not ideally placed after nine weeks off.
Trainer Tom Ward and connections would no doubt be delighted to nick some black type at this vaunted level and their mare has conditions to potentially do so. (TT)
ORAZIO
He's towards the top of the market for the Coral Stewards’ Cup, but it’s not hard to see why based on his imperious performance on soft ground at Ascot back in May.
He powered clear under William Buick to register a decisive two-and-a-quarter length victory on that occasion and the runner-up has since run well at Newbury. Charlie Hills’ charge also ran a screamer in the Wokingham last time given he got outpaced at a crucial stage.
Goodwood could really suit his style of running and, back at a track with perfect underfoot conditions, he is expected to go close from stall 6. (DA)
EMPIRE OF ART
A 14-runner maiden for two-year-olds - a mere 10 of them unraced - isn't a particularly sensible idea of a betting heat but this colt is just worth flagging up for three reasons.
Firstly, conditions will likely put an even greater emphasis on experience - and, regardless of going, runners on career debut in Glorious Goodwood maidens and novice races since 2010 have a strike-rate of just 3% (or 20% of the winners from 47% of the total runners).
Empire Of Art is one of the few with prior experience and that was on soft ground at Doncaster when he fared best of the newcomers in that race, while he is by first-season sire Best Solution, a horse who won decent races all over Europe for Godolphin including on soft ground, while Empire Of Art is a half-brother to heavy ground winner over 10 furlongs aged two and this colt is likely to need further than this seven-furlong trip.
Finally, Michael Bell is going along fairly well with four winners and five seconds from his last 17 runners inside the past 10 days. (TT)
LIBERTY LANE
Karl Burke has already enjoyed a victory at the meeting and Liberty Lane looks primed to go close in the final race of the Qatar Goodwood Festival.
The son of Teofilo was a ready winner on debut last term when powering to a five-length victory at Nottingham on soft ground and has not encountered the same form ground in four runs since.
Second to subsequent Royal Ascot hero Waipiro on his seasonal reappearance, he has not been disgraced in his last three starts, most recently when fourth in a competitive handicap at Newmarket.
The nine-furlong trip is no issue and now off a mark of 97, he certainly will relish any more rain. (DA)
