God's Tipster's 6 Saturday Picks include the Lexington & Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, Dangers Hour at Aqueduct

Friday’s Race Recap from Aqueduct:

(All odds US)

Aqueduct:

Race 1: SCRATCH

Race 8: 10th@ 10.80/1

We scratched from Race 1. In Race 8, I loved Mischief Motion. She was guided away by Romero Maragh from post 12 and raced in mid-pack early. She looked perfectly positioned to strike off a fast pace but she proceeded to back up through the pack without being persevered with and was never asked. I was right about looking for a bomb here as 43/1 Frosty Invasion ended up on top. I hope Mischief Motion is all right.

Friday’s Race Recap from Keeneland:

(All odds US)

Keeneland:

Race 6: 1st@ 0.72/1 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Race 7: 2nd@ 3.23/1

Race 8: 5th@ 1.21/1

Race 9: 8th@ 46.47/1

It’s always nice to start the day with a win and that’s exactly what we did in Race 6 as Distinctlypossible stalked the early pace and benefitted from a ground saving ride by Tyler Gaffalione to skim the rail in the stretch enroute to a convincing win. In Race 7, Lady Hollywood took the lead turning for home under a confident ride, but her stablemate, favored Love Reigns snuck up the rail to nail us on the money. In Race 8, Travel Column was sent to the lead and pressed early but the pace wasn’t wickedly fast. Turning for home she seemed under a confident ride but by mid-stretch she had already spit the bit and faded to fifth. In Race 9, In Love was never a factor finishing 8th. I’ve got a love-hate relationship with In Love now.

In the immortal words of the now incarcerated R. Kelly: “It’s the freakin’ weekend baby I’m about to have me some fun.” We’ve got the Grade 3 Lexington card from Keeneland which is the final last-minute run at Kentucky Derby points for some and we’ve got some races from Aqueduct as well. We’ve got cloudy skies in the forecast at Aqueduct and Keeneland should be fast and firm with sunshine. Let’s get started.

Aqueduct:

Race 3. So High - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)

The Dangers Hour at a mile on the inner turf is a race that always seems to produce an odd result at a big price. So High is my candidate to fill that role this year but his 20/1 morning line is probably due more to his low profile connections than his actual form. On paper he has races that fit with the best of these. Our 4/5 morning line favorite Big Everest hails from a barn that’s gotten off to a chilly start to this meet at 1 win for their first 9 starters. So High owns a win over this turf course earlier in his career and has been on or near the lead of late but he won his most recent start from off the pace. Upset possibility.

Race 5: Union Tap - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 20/1)

Maiden claimers race a mile and a sixteenth on turf and I like the value I see in Union Tap if those morning line odds hold true by post time. Union Tap finished last in his debut when facing much tougher at Gulfstream. He ships up here and adds blinkers while dropping in class. Trainer John Kimmel has a good record with second time runners racing on turf with 16% wins at an average payout or $16.47. When he adds blinkers for the first time he’s 1 for 5 with an average payoff of $33.00. Upset special.

Race 7: Starts Now - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 12/1)

New York bred three year old maiden fillies race at a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf. Starts Now is 12/1 on the morning line but I have a feeling she’ll get bet down from there. Her first and only turf start ended up being a better-than-it-looked effort with her closing faster than just about everyone in the final 1/8th of a mile. Her next start on dirt was a disaster but she’s a turf runner as evidenced by her breeding. She’s got the Roberto/Kris S. influence on the dam’s side and this miss is a half to stakes placed and five time turf winner Distorted Beauty as well as multiple turf stakes winner Invading Humor. Another who looks like she’ll provide good value on today’s card.

Keeneland:

Race 3: Eyes On Target - 1 pt win (UD Morning Line Odds: 8/1)

Allowance runners go a mile and a sixteenth on turf and we’re back to the well with Eyes On Target who finished up the track for us last time out after a 10 wide trip on the final turn. That was his first race off a layoff and today he comes back freshened with a few works. He had done quite a bit better last year in terms of speed figure performance. Runners returning from his most recent start have improved speed figures by 20 and 13 points in their next start and one basically held the same form. I look for a much improved effort today for Eyes On Target with solid connections behind him.

Race 9: Empirestrikesfast - 1 pt win (US Morning Line Odds: 4/1)

The Grade 3 Lexington at a mile and a sixteenth on dirt is a prep for the Grade 1 Preakness for a few of these and a last ditch effort at making it to the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby for a few as well. First Mission is our 3/1 lukewarm morning line favorite and the word on the street is that the barn loves this horse and is indeed looking to use this race as a prep for the Preakness. Maybe he’s best here but I’m dubious about the competition he faced. I loved Empirestrikesfast’s maiden effort. Sent off at odds of 23/1 against a Todd Pletcher runner who would come within a head of taking last weekend’s Grade 1 Wood Memorial in his next start, Empirestrikesfast raced like an experienced horse in his debut effort, navigating a route first time out while being passed on the far turn and rallying back on the inside. Only very good horses do that sort of thing and he strikes me as a colt with a bright future. 4/1 sounds just fine to me as much of the betting public will be locked in on Brad Cox and Bob Baffert runners.

Race 10: In Italian - 2 pts win (US Morning Line Odds: 7/5)

The Grade 1 Jenny Wiley stakes at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf drew a Grade 1 caliber field (that doesn’t always happen these days). Chad Brown’s got In Italian set for her seasonal debut after winning two Grade 1’s last year and finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare turf. She’s the controlling speed nearest the rail here and picks up the nation’s top rider. For me it comes down to how she treated Regal Glory last fall here at Keeneland. Regal Glory, her stablemate and multiple Grade 1 winner, was no match for In Italian in the Grade 1 First Lady. I have a ton of respect for Regal Glory and if In Italian can handle her the way she did I don’t think this field can beat her. Gate to wire.