Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction: NHL pick for Monday

Everyone knew it was just a matter of time before the Colorado Avalanche made their charge.

The Avs have won five in a row, are 7-1-2 in their last 10, and now trail the Dallas Stars by just three points for the top spot in the Central Division. Colorado has two games in hand on Dallas.

But the Avs are not the only contender that looks like it put things together after some bumps and bruises. The Vegas Golden Knights are 6-1-3 in their last 10 contests and are back atop the NHL Pacific Division.

Colorado is a -140 favorite over Vegas on Monday night at 9 p.m. ET. It will be broadcasted live on ESPN+ and NHLPP.

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction

(9 p.m. ET., ESPN+)

A peculiar thing about this surge from the Avalanche is that they are not really driving play like we’re accustomed to seeing from them over the past few seasons. Colorado has skated to a +8 goal differential (26 GF, 18 GA) at 5-on-5 over its last 10 games, but its expected goals difference is basically even. The Avs have created 23.1 xG over that span and surrendered 23.9 xGA. 

Those numbers tell you that the Avs are getting some terrific goaltending — and then some.

Quietly, Alexandar Georgiev is turning in a terrific season for the Avs, thanks in large part to his current form. The former Ranger is 9-1-1 in his last 11 starts with a .932 save percentage and a +10.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

Georgiev’s timing couldn’t have been better, either, as the Avs are still being bit with the injury bug. Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog and Erik Johnson all remain out for the Avs.

Vegas, too, has dealt with an array of injuries all season. The Golden Knights are currently without starting goaltender Logan Thompson and first-line winger Mark Stone. The Knights did help address the Stone-sized hole in their top-six with a move for Ivan Barbashev, however.

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Unlike Colorado, the Knights have the statistical portfolio to back up their hot form right now. Vegas has been terrific defensively over the last 10 games, allowing just 15 goals, 18.6 expected goals and 79 high-danger scoring chances against at 5-on-5 over that span. The Knights rank first, fourth and second in the NHL, respectively, in those categories over the last 10 contests.

With Vegas playing lights out defensively and Georgiev in scintillating form, this contest has all the makings for a tightly contested affair. But rather than take a juiced Under 6, bettors can find some value on backing this game to go to overtime at +320.