Golf

Golf betting tips: US Open first-round three-balls and match bets

sportinglife.com

13 June 2023

Golf betting tips: US Open first round

2pts Michael Kim to beat Jordan Smith and Wenyi Ding at 13/8 (Betway)

2pt double Rodgers and Ortiz to win their three-balls at 3/1 (bet365, Betway)

1pt double Munoz and Puig to win their three-balls at 11/2 (BoyleSports, bet365, Betway)

1pt e.w. Max Homa to lead after round one at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

0.5pt e.w. Patrick Rodgers to lead after round one at 125/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Those of us in the UK will be made to wait until almost three o'clock on Thursday for the US Open to begin, and among the early starters MICHAEL KIM can help make it worthwhile (1456 BST)

Kim had to show patience too before sneaking into the field as an alternate, and it'll be an overdue return for the player who finished 17th as the leading amateur a decade ago.

Having suffered a massive dip in form following his PGA Tour breakthrough in 2018, Kim has been playing the best golf of his career lately, with two top-10 finishes in three before a quiet week with the putter hurt him in Canada.

Raised in California, this is a great place to make his comeback and Kim was in fact part of the winning team in the Pac-12 Conference event held at LACC, the one which has helped elevate Max Homa up a lot of people's shortlists having starred that week.

Kim will be relishing this opportunity and looks a great bet to outperform Jordan Smith, a real flusher whose putting woes potentially cost him a third DP World Tour title last time out in Germany.

Smith has a top-10 finish in a major to his name courtesy of the 2017 PGA Championship, but Kim's recent form is stronger given that he's been playing at a higher level, and he also boasts home advantage.

Amateur Wenyi Ding completes the three-ball and he's produced plenty of good golf throughout 2023, but he's short enough in the market for one so inexperienced and I much prefer Kim.

There should also be an element of home comfort for PATRICK RODGERS and he looks the banker of the morning wave (1518).

Rodgers went to college at Stanford and has regularly played well back in California, not just in PGA Tour events at Torrey Pines and Riviera but in the 2021 US Open when he finished 31st.

One of the most solid performers around in recent months, he was 29th in the PGA Championship and 30th at the Memorial Tournament, form which is a long way superior to that of short-hitting veteran Ryan Armour, who is without a top-40 finish all year.

Armour makes his US Open debut late in the day having missed the cut in both previous PGA Championship starts as well as in one Open Championship, and he's likely to find this course far too big for him even with the fairways so firm.

With Jens Dantorp having failed to break 80 in both rounds last time out and also lacking in the required experience and class, Rodgers merits odds-on favouritism and should do the business.

Later on, three LIV Golf players make plenty of appeal and I'll start with CARLOS ORTIZ (2026).

Once a regular contender at nearby Riviera, he's got plenty of strong form in this part of the US to his name and played nicely enough on his latest LIV start in Washington DC.

Ortiz's Houston Open win came under tough, firm conditions and he's always been best when par means something, so he's one who could enjoy a quietly successful week starting on Thursday afternoon.

Recent DP World Tour winner Simon Forsstrom lacks experience at anything like this level having been on the Nordic Golf League this time a year ago, and amateur Maxwell Moldovan missed the cut on his US Open debut last summer.

It's hard to find a bet in any of the marquee groups but I did consider Sam Bennett as a big outsider against Cam Smith and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Smith is probably the man to beat but his poor US Open record is a nagging worry even if this one might be more akin to Chambers Bay, where he first made a name for himself in 2015.

Still, he has a question to answer and with Fitzpatrick defending his title, this could be the right time to catch Bennett, who played well in Canada last week.

Back in April, Bennett was right in the mix after an opening 68 at Augusta, and solid starts have been a feature of his early forays into tour-level golf, dating right back to a first-round 70 at Brookline last year.

At 4/1 or so, he's the most compelling outsider on the board but we can get a bigger price by doubling SEBASTIAN MUNOZ (2205) and DAVID PUIG (2216) and that's the preferred choice.

Munoz was 14th in last year's US Open and more recently has been producing solid ball-striking stats on the LIV Golf circuit, where he was fourth in Washington.

Key to this though is that Canadian Open winner Nick Taylor will do well to go again so soon after that life-changing victory which ran late into Sunday, while Taylor Montgomery's long-game has been extremely poor of late.

Montgomery's propensity to hole everything he looks at makes him enough of a threat but Munoz is hitting it far better and that may prove the difference between them in the end.

As for Puig, the youngster hits the ball a mile and has been getting his act together lately.

He played his college golf at Arizona and has been drawn with amateur Karl Vilips, currently ranked 63rd in the world, and Olin Browne Jr, son of former PGA Tour winner Olin Browne.

This is something a home game for the latter, whose wife is from LA, but he's been playing minor tours lately and having scraped through local qualifying before earning a US Open start at the 17th attempt, he's very likely to struggle.

Vilips qualified along with Munoz in Maryland and plays out of Stanford, but this will be his first tour-level start in the US and expectations have to be low. Puig, 12th on the LIV circuit last time, can prove himself a worthy favourite.

Who is the best bet for the first-round lead?

With little in the way of wind and such a strong field heading to a course few have seen, the first-round leader market is perhaps even more open than it appears.

However, having found it really hard to make a determination on MAX HOMA in the outright market, I'm happy to make him Thursday's speculative play and hope that any advantage he has comes to fruition early on.

Homa's winning spree in his home state is well documented, with four of his six PGA Tour titles captured in California, and it follows that he's been in the mix from the get-go on several occasions.

All told he's been in the top five after round one on seven of his last 14 starts here, including second and first in the last two events held at Riviera, so with an early tee-time to work with and the course record already in his possession, he's a likeable option.

Homa was seventh after the opening round at Colonial when last seen and he's done his best work early on in majors, without yet seeing it through. This could be the week but I'll take the additional volatility of the first-round leader market in return for a bigger price now that he's bagged an early slot.

Habitual fast starter Justin Rose also makes some appeal and Bennett could be worth a speculative spin if you can get the standout 300/1 offered by Paddy Power and Betfair, but I'll make RODGERS my second and final selection.

Rodgers has played in just four editions of the US Open and he's been inside the top 20 after the first round of each of his last three, which is where he was again after both an opening 70 at the PGA Championship and a similar round at the Memorial.

He's done everything to an exceptional standard at some point recently and at three-figure prices from an early slot he's my idea of a potential dark horse on day one, but stakes should be kept to a minimum in an event so competitive.

Posted at 2100 BST on 13/06/23

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