Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay picks: Back Cleveland at home

After losing six of their last seven games, the Memphis Grizzlies will look to right the ship in a battle with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland has been one of the best home teams in the NBA, Evan Mobley’s scoring has taken a step forward recently and these defences project to keep points off the board.

Odds as of 11:16 a.m. on 02/02/2023.

Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay

Cavaliers -2.5 + Mobley over 16.5 points + under 236.5 points (+280)

Cavaliers -2.5 (-186): While the Grizzlies have a slightly better record than the Cavaliers, they are a totally different team on the road than they are in Memphis.

At home, the Grizzlies have a 21-4 record, going 15-9-1 against the spread. Elsewhere, the team is 11-15 with a 9-15-2 ATS record — the fourth-worst mark in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 21-6 at home with the best ATS record in the league (17-9-1).

We still respect Memphis’ talent enough to move the line down a bit for the purposes of this parlay, but Cleveland is a far better bet than these teams’ overall records indicate.

Mobley over 16.5 points (+102): Plus-money bets don’t often find their way into this kind of parlay, but we’re happy to ride with Mobley.

For much of the season, there was talk about his offensive development stalling out, but that chatter has quieted down lately.

The 21-year-old’s scoring has taken off in the last few weeks as he’s averaged 19.3 points in his last 11 games, hitting this over nine times.

Although Memphis is a tough opponent, the Grizzlies are missing centre Steven Adams, which could make life easier for Mobley on the interior.

That still leaves Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Jaren Jackson Jr. to contend with, but Mobley has hit this over in all three of his career matchups with the Block Panther.

Under 236.5 points (-385): After the riskier Mobley play, we’re going to tack a safer leg onto the end of this parlay that gives some credit to these teams’ elite defensive capabilities.

The Cavaliers allowed the fewest points in the NBA on a per-game basis (106.8) while the Grizzlies rank 10th (112.5). Although Memphis is also a top-10 team on the offensive side of the ball (116.6 points/game), the Cavaliers rank 26th in scoring (111.2).

It’s clear the defences have more firepower than the offences in this one. Just seven of 53 Cavaliers games this season have topped this total, and three of those went to overtime.