Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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18 January 2024

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

We're not even through January and the Memphis Grizzlies are already begging for the season to end. Luke Kennard has been thrust into a starting role, and our NBA picks expect him to sink rather than swim against Minnesota.

When the NBA scheduled the Minnesota Timberwolves to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on TNT, they were expecting a much different game than the one we will see tonight. But injuries or not, the money is still green if we win our NBA player prop bets by utilizing the top NBA odds.

You know the story with the Grizzlies this season: Their roster has been ravaged by injuries, and they'll be without Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart, among others, against the Timberwolves.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is completely healthy, at the top of the Western Conference standings, and is coming off a victory over the Detroit Pistons last night.

As Memphis continues to adjust its offense to the players available, I have my eye on an Under bet for one of the Grizz's guards who has been thrust into a bigger role. Find out who in my free NBA picks for the Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves on January 18.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves odds

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves predictions

With Morant, Bane, and Smart all out for the Memphis Grizzlies, they have turned to Luke Kennard to be their starting point guard. Yes, you read that correctly. Kennard is the starting point guard for the Grizzlies. With the elevated role comes increased minutes, but also elevated totals on his player props.

I think we have an opportunity to exploit that elevated total on Thursday because of the matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Kennard only averages 2.6 assists per game on the season, and before his minutes were increased due to the injuries, he was trading with a total of either 1.5 or 2.5 at plus money. Now, with the increased role, his total is up to 3.5 with increased juice on the Over. But not so fast — I think this is too high, especially against Minnesota.

Kennard isn't a player who is going to break down a defense, get in the lane, and create easy dump-off passes for dunks or layups for his teammates. Go watch his previous game against the Warriors: his assists were coming off of his teammates knocking down 3-point shots, which is hard to rely on for an Over on an inflated total.

Not only is Kennard's Over for his assists prop dependent on his teammates making jump shots, but the best offensive weapon he has to dish the ball to for potential assists, Jaren Jackson Jr., is facing a frontcourt anchored by Defensive Player of the Year favorite, Rudy Gobert.

Kennard can create offense for his teammates, but a matchup against the Timberwolves' defense is a completely different story for any player in the NBA, especially one who isn't a natural point guard.

I also don't believe Kennard is guaranteed 30+ minutes in this matchup. Minnesota is a 12.5-point favorite, and Kennard isn't a part of the long-term plan with the Grizzlies. If this game gets ugly, they could be quick to bail on his minutes and let Vince Williams and Jacob Gilyard create the offense.

Kennard is projected to have 3.4 assists on Thursday against the Timberwolves, allowing us to price the Under 3.5 assists at -131, but it's trading at +105 at DraftKings. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 16%.

My best bet: Luke Kennard Under 3.5 assists (+105 at DraftKings) 50% boost available

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Luke Kennard Under 3.5 assists

Jaren Jackson Jr. Under 23.5 points

Mike Conley Over 0.5 steals

Even with high usage due to all of the injuries, this is a daunting task for Jackson on Thursday. He's facing a Timberwolves lineup with positional size at almost every spot on the floor. The Grizzlies will have a tough time creating any offensive advantages for Jackson against Minnesota, who possesses multiple defenders that can switch onto JJJ.

Kennard is the starting point guard for the Grizzlies, but he is not a primary ball handler on a healthy NBA roster. If Conley can turn Kennard over, it would help us see reduced minutes for him on Thursday, which would ultimately support my Under bet on his assists prop.

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Grizzlies vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

The Timberwolves opened as 11.5-point favorites at FanDuel and are now trading as 12.5-point favorites. They're on the back end of a back-to-back, but based on the line movement we've seen, it looks like everyone will play for Minny.

The total opened at 217.5 at DraftKings, and we've seen it move three points to the Under, as it's now trading at 214.5. Make sure to shop around for the best number, as there are some 215s in the market.