Guardians vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds

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21 May 2023

Guardians vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds

Cleveland and New York got stuck playing two games Sunday after being rained out, and the final game takes place during Sunday Night Baseball. Our MLB picks are expecting Pete Alonso to continue crushing for the Mets.

It's another edition of Sunday Night Baseball. This one will see us head to The Big Apple as the New York Mets close a series against the Cleveland Guardians.

These teams will play two today. Last night saw a rain out, and consequently, by the time this one gets started, they'll have already been one game played earlier in the day. The first game of this series saw the Mets extend their win streak to three games. With New York looking to make it four in a row, Pete Alonso will be sure to make an impact.

Find out in my best bet in my MLB picks for the Mets vs. Guardians on SNB.

Guardians vs Mets odds

Guardians vs Mets predictions

Count 'em up. Yesterday marked four straight games that Pete Alonso has homered in entering today.

Now I'm not making him hitting a home run my best bet, but I will be playing a half unit on it at the attractive price of +370 on bet365. Conditions in Citi Field aren't at their best, but it will still be a relatively comfortable night meaning the temperature will have a minimum effect on ball carry.

Shane Bieber takes the mound for the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and he's yet to meet expectations this year. On the surface, the ERA that hovers over three isn't too bad (though it's not what you'd expect from your ace), but once you get into the underlying metrics, you see some issues.

Bieber has an expected ERA of over five, indicating he's been a bit lucky this season. In addition, he's in the Bottom 6 percentile of hard-hit balls and below average in barrel rate. That sounds like a disaster recipe when you're facing a player like Alonso potentially three times.

Alonso has struggled against the fastball this season, but we can all be logical and say he's not the guy you want to regularly throw fastballs to. Three of his last four home runs have come against those pitches, perfectly illustrating that point. Because of that, I don't think you'll see many fastballs from Bieber thrown his way, even if that is his preferred pitch. That opens up a new set of issues, though.

Bieber will lean on his slider in these at bats — his cutter has been atrocious this season, and he's thrown it less and less — and that's music to the ears of Pete. No rostered batter has hit the slider better this season than Alonso, as his +6 run value shows.

This illustrates the dilemma for Bieber: throw the fastball, and you may not get that ball back, or throw the pitch that one of the hottest hitters in baseball hits the best. Either way, this makes the price of +140 on the Over of his total bases mightily appealing. I projected +100 here, and it's easily the best value of the game. I'll happily grab it and hopefully cash two bets in the process with another Alonso long ball.

My best bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)

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Guardians vs Mets moneyline analysis

Usually, you're getting Justin Verlander on the mound at an unplayable number, but a few things about this situation are unique.

The public perception of Bieber remains high even if he consistently underperforms. In addition, I believe that the public perception of Verlander is a bit down — if it wasn't, you wouldn't be getting this price. He's coming off one of the worst starts of his career when he was absolutely shelled by the Tampa Bay Rays to the tune of six earned runs on eight hits through five innings of work.

Instead of writing him off, I've opted to bet that this as an excellent spot to buy low on a Verlander bounceback. I projected the run line in the first five innings to be closer to -120, which makes the -105 price at bet365 appealing.

I see more of an edge in isolating the first five innings than the entire game. I'm backing two narratives: a big-time bounce back for a future Hall of Famer and regression that is overdue for another. Those narratives are best captured earlier in the game rather than having a bullpen impacting things.

Guardians vs Mets Over/Under analysis

This total of 7.5 looks about right and falls directly in line with my projections.

While I don't expect it to impact a power hitter like Alonso too much, it's worth mentioning that winds will be blowing it tonight, and that's likely to reduce some of the run-scoring.

The trouble about having a solid position here is that the Mets can blow this one open. It doesn't mean they will, but as I've illustrated, I like the matchup. With the conditions in Citi Field, I lean to the Under, but that aspect of this game does enough to scare me off.

Guardians vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Justin Verlander (1-2, 4.76) It's been an auspicious start to the season for the future Hall of Famer. His last start against the Tampa Bay Rays has artificially inflated his ERA, but even with that in mind, things have been a bit off for Verlander. The fastball has seen a slight drop in velocity, and the curveball has added some movement that's caused issues as batters have hit .333 against it. In a vacuum, you expect Verlander to improve on his current form, but there are a few warning signs that some regression is happening.

Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.20 ERA) In some ways, Bieber has faced some of the issues that Verlander has faced, but his seem a bit more alarming. The face value of a 3.2 ERA and 3-2 record isn't too bad, but it's concerning from an ace. It's even more concerning when it comes with the caveat of an expected ERA that's over five and a hard-hit rate that it's the Bottom 3% of baseball.