Guinness Six Nations Round 4 Preview: Championship Up For Grabs In London

Round four of the 2024 Guinness Six Nations is nearly upon us, with the kick-off of Italy vs Scotland in Rome mere hours away.

The penultimate round of this year’s Championship sees it all to play for, with several key permutations in play as European Rugby’s big six take to the bench over the next forty-eight hours.

Here are five key talking points to track in this weekend’s action.

Ireland Chase Record Run And Title

Andy Farrell’s Ireland have firmly put to rest their agonising Rugby World Cup quarterfinal exit by reasserting themselves as Europe’s top team.

Thumping France, Italy and Wales without ever really hitting top gear shows just how far this side has come over the past four years. Whilst the 2023 World Cup still feels very much like the one that got away, it does not detract from the fact that Ireland are right up there with South Africa and New Zealand as a candidate for the best side in the world.

A win at Twickenham on Saturday would further cement this legacy as Ireland would break the most consecutive Six Nations wins record with 12. This would then set up a shot at what would be a first-ever back-to-back Six Nations Grand Slam when they face Scotland in round five.

Of course, this chat is unlikely to have been front and centre for the team itself but more one for scribes like this one to wax lyrical about.

Italy To Cause An Upset

Let’s be very clear here: Italy should’ve and likely would’ve beaten France in round three if the match officials had correctly enforced the penalty kick rules.

Alas, a draw was the final result, and in reality, it was still a significant step forward for the Azzurri under new head coach Gonzalo Quesada.

Displaying exceptional resilience in the face of a French storm, Italy miraculously entered half-time trailing by just a long score and with a man up due to Jonathan Danty’s impending red card. Certainly, one could make the case that Italy should have scored more tries, given the opportunities they created, but it is also worth remembering that the Italy of old would have conspired to lose the match.

Now facing a team that will once again be favoured to beat them, Italy have the capabilities to prey on Scotland’s ability to become complacent following their significant win over England. To do so, they will need to deliver a 9.9/10 performance with a moment of magic from someone like Ange Capuozzo.

French Power To Return

There is little subtly in how French coach Fabien Galthie sees a path to victory for his team in Cardiff this week.

Shoehorning in returning captain Gregory Alldritt, Julian Marchand, Thibaut Flament and debutant secondrow Emmanuel Meafou as part of his eight total changes, Galthie is clearly looking to pulverise the young Welsh side.

In a bid to push the relentless nature of the fixture, the up-tempo Nolan Le Gerrac will start alongside Thomas Ramos in the halfbacks and will look to bring in his big one off runners early and often.

This strategy was certainly in play during the first half against Italy but was noticeably absent against Ireland and Scotland, where Les Bleus seemingly overplayed their hand.

At this point in the Championship, all that will matter for Galthie is to close out the final two rounds with victories and then reassess what needs to change to get France back to the dizzying heights of 2020 – 2023.

England Evolution Under Scrutiny

It’s time to front up for Steve Borthwick’s England as they face the best team in their year’s Championship when they welcome Ireland to town.

In simple terms a win of any kind would a significant development for Borthwick who is now firmly in the firing line following a fourth consecutive Calcutta Cup loss to Scotland.

In 2024, it does not get tougher than facing an Irish team chasing a Six Nations Grand Slam, and as such, if the men in white can play spoilers, it would bring some much-needed respite for Borthwick and his team.

To do this, England will need a 10 out of 10 performance, whilst Ireland will need to be slightly off, given where the two sides are in their development.

The much-heralded Felix Jones blitz defence has fired in fits and spurts but has also been brutally exposed and will be again if England cannot execute it with more regularity this afternoon.

In attack, outside of a significant shifting in the tides, England will need to be ruthless in their kick chase and rely on moments of brilliance from their undoubtedly talented backline.

Entering as 6/1 underdogs, there has never been a better moment for Borthwick’s side to shock the world; the question is, can they sow the seeds of doubt in what is an uber-confident and clinical Irish team?

Welsh Young Guns To Struggle

Moments are what fans of rebuilding teams hang onto, and this young Welsh side has had plenty of those.

Rallying from 27 – 0 down to come within a point of tying Scotland in round one was followed by a late loss to England in round two before being blasted by Ireland in round three.

Such is the disparity between Wales and the top sides, namely Ireland, at the moment that Welsh fans and even their coach, Warren Gatland, took solace in pushing Ireland before losing 31 – 7.

Let’s be real, this mindset only has a limited shelf life for one of World Rugby’s proudest nations that are used to success.

To really leave this year’s Championship with a tangible marker of progress a win is non-negotiable and as such it would appear as though Gatland has targeted their final round fixture with Italy.

This statement is built off the fact that he has dropped two of his most experienced and in-form players in Nick Tompkins and George North for this weekend’s clash with France.

In a rather head scratching move, the duo are replaced by Owen Watkin and Joe Roberts in the midfield against a vulnerable French side.

Whilst Gatland has pitched this as rewarding his squad, from the outside it feels like an odd juncture to pull off a move like this. Could he not have done this away to Ireland where in reality the result was likely already written?

Of course, Wales could still pull off the upset, but without their key backline leaders, the challenge just got that bit tougher against a French side that could well click with their ultra-powerful ball-carrying pack and explosive backline.