Hawks vs. Celtics prediction: NBA odds, pick for Game 5

We have a Hawks vs. Celtics prediction as Boston tries to finish off the series and advance to the second round. 

Outside of the eight-point Atlanta win in Game 3, the Celtics have battered the Hawks, winning and covering every other game. 

However, I think that’s inflated the spread for this game, and it might finally be time to buy the Hawks. 

Hawks vs. Celtics odds

Odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, current at time of writing and subject to change

Spread: Hawks +13 (-110) vs. Celtics -13 (-110)

Moneyline: Hawks (+600) vs. Celtics (-900)

Total: Over 229 (-110) | Under 229 (-110)

Hawks vs. Celtics prediction

Outside of Boston’s general domination of Atlanta, this game’s spread is so high because of Dejounte Murray’s suspension. 

Murray had an altercation with a referee following Game 4’s loss, resulting in a one-game suspension. 

Murray is the Hawks’ second-leading scorer, and he’s been particularly effective during this series (25.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 5.8 APG).

However, the sportsbooks may be over-adjusting for his absence. 

With Murray in the lineup, the ShotQualityBets model projects the Celtics as a 7.7-point favorite, while The Action Network PRO model projects the Celtics as a 9.4-point favorite. 

Murray is good, but he’s not worth three-to-six points to the spread. 

In fact, one could argue the Hawks are better without Murray.

Per NBA advanced stats, the Hawks have a -1.1 net rating with Murray on the court and a +2.2 net rating with him off the court. 

Perhaps that’s a stretch, but it does illustrate my main point: Murray is not worth over three points to the spread, so there’s likely value in this overinflated, 13-point number. 

Meanwhile, despite looking dominant at times, the Celtics haven’t won by more than 13 points in any game this series. 

Boston has covered in all three of their wins, but their against-the-spread (ATS) margins have been minimal (winning by 13 as 10-point favorites, by 13 as 10.5-point favorites, and by eight as 7.5-point favorites). 

Therefore, gifting the Hawks a few extra points of spread value might push the needle too far, resulting in an Atlanta ATS victory. 

Also, now that the series is back in Boston, I expect this game to be more defense-focused than the past two games in Atlanta. 

The Hawks couldn’t score in their first two games of the series, with the Celtics clamping down on their home court.

They held the Hawks to 99 points in Game 1 and 106 in Game 2, holding leading-scorer Trae Young to an abysmal 91.4 offensive rating.

Betting on the NBA?

But despite the defensive dominance, the Celtics couldn’t pull away, as the Hawks held their own on the defensive end.

The C’s posted a mediocre 111.6 offensive rating in the two games (for context, that mark would’ve ranked 26th in the NBA during the regular season). 

The Celtics should return to dominating defensively, but I also expect the Hawks to focus more on defense sans Murray.

Atlanta needs to keep this game close on that end, and I think the Hawks can achieve that.

While I expect this to be a lower-scoring affair, but I’m not advocating for betting on the under. The total is too low. 

Instead, a lower-scoring, defensive-minded game often correlates with big underdogs covering the spread, and that’s what I expect for Game 5. 

Given the projections and expected game script, I’m banking on this being a single-digit game.

Therefore, I’ll take the Hawks +13 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook and would bet on them down to +10.5 (-110). 

Hawks vs. Celtics pick

Atlanta Hawks +13 (-110) | Bet to +10.5 (-110)