Hawks vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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22 January 2024

Hawks vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The NBA nightcap takes us to Sactown where the Kings play host to the Atlanta Hawks. Given the Kings' recent form, returning to the win column needs to start with a big game from their main man, and our betting picks expect Sabonis to deliver.

The Sacramento Kings will try to snap a four-game losing streak when they welcome the Atlanta Hawks to town on Monday night.

The skid is the Kings’ longest of the season but the NBA odds like their chances of ending that tonight against a short-handed Hawks team. Atlanta will be without its best player, as Trae Young is sidelined with a concussion.

Will the Hawks be able to keep up with the high-octane Kings without their leading scorer? I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet, plus a same-game parlay in my NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Kings on Monday, January 22.

Hawks vs Kings odds

Hawks vs Kings predictions

The Sacramento Kings have not looked as regal of late. The Kings are in the middle of their longest losing streak of the season, dropping their last four games in a row and dropping to eighth spot in the Western Conference.

That said, Sacramento is in a great position to bounce back tonight against the visiting Atlanta Hawks. Despite the losses, the Kings’ offense looks like it’s starting to find its rhythm again. On top of that, they are coming off a mini break, having not played since last Thursday.

More importantly, tonight's matchup is perfect. The Hawks have been inconsistent this season and the last nine games are a perfect example. They are 4-5 straight up and just 3-6 ATS but they have wins over the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat over that stretch and three losses as favorites, including one to the Washington Wizards.

Scoring won’t come any easier tonight with Trae Young sidelined with a concussion. The Hawks’ guard is averaging 26.9 points and 10.8 assists per game this season. Even if Young was playing, it wouldn’t help their defense.

Atlanta, to put it nicely, is not a good defensive team and to make matters worse arguably their best defender De’Andre Hunter will also miss this game. The Hawks rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating and 29th in opponent-effective field goal percentage.

Where they really get killed is on the inside. Atlanta surrenders the third most points in the paint per game this season.

The Kings center is having another standout season, averaging 20.1 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists this season. But Sabonis has upped his game lately. Over the last 15 games, those numbers bump up to 22.7, 13.3, and 9.3.

Sabonis’ point total for tonight’s matchup is sitting at 20.5. He’s gone Over that number 11 times in his last 15 games. That includes putting up 25 points on 12-17 shootings against this same Hawks team in Atlanta back on Dec. 29. I’m backing him to lead a rested and motivated Kings team and taking the Over on his points-scored prop.

My best bet: Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 points (-120 at Caesars)

Hawks vs Kings same-game parlay

Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 points

Domantas Sabonis 10+ rebounds

Dejounte Murray Over 7.5 assists

Bogdon Bogdanovic 3+ made threes

As always, our same-game parlay tips off with our best bet, which for this matchup between the Hawks and Kings is Domantas Sabonis to go Over 20.5 points. But why stop there?

The Hawks are subpar when it comes to cleaning the glass, ranking 18th in rebounding rate and 21st in rebounds per game. As noted, Sabonis is averaging 13.3 rebounds per game over his last 12. Now, that’s inflated a bit by a couple of massive performances but he as double-digit boards in 24 consecutive games. Let’s back him to make it 25.

Now, let’s look at some guys who may step up for the Hawks in Trae Young’s absence, starting with guard Dejounte Murray. Murray puts on his playmaking hat when Young sits out this season. In three games without Young, Murray has dished out 30 assists and no fewer than nine in a game. Let’s add the Over 7.5 assists.

The Hawks will need some extra scoring too. So, let’s close this SGP out with Bogdan Bogdanovic to hit three or more 3s. His shooting percentage from 3-point range is a little down this year but has hit three or more threes each time Young hasn’t played this season and faces a Kings team that ranks 29th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

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Hawks vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

These two teams last met in Atlanta back on Dec. 29 with the Kings earning a 117-110 victory as 1-point home favorites in a game that fell well short of the 252.5 point total. The big difference this time around will be the Kings will be at home and the Hawks will be without Trae Young.

When it comes to the spread, the Kings opened this matchup as 8.5-point home favorites but some early bettors are seeing some value in the Hawks with the line sitting at Sacramento -8 as of writing. And to be fair, the Kings have struggled to cover spreads at some lately, going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games at home.

The Kings should certainly win this game, but it should be noted they are also coming off a loss against a shorthanded Indiana Pacers team. A game in which they were 8.5-point home favorites. I’ll stay away from the spread where.

As for the total, that hit the board at 237, and it up slightly to 238. Now, even with Young missing this game, dropping the number by nearly 15 points feels like an over-adjustment. The Hawks still have plenty of capable scorers and are going against a Sacramento team that ranks 17th in defensive rating and 24th in opponent eFG%. I would have a slight lean to the Over here tonight.