Head to Head: Handicapping Risen Star Stakes 2023

The Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes attracted a full field of 14. The third stop on the Fair Grounds road to Kentucky Derby 2023 brings together a duke’s mixture of established prospects and new faces Saturday.

Lecomte (G3) runner-up Two Phil’s and the top trio from an undercard race that day will meet a couple runners from Oaklawn Park’s Smarty Jones along with some maiden winners.

The 1 1/8-mile Risen Star is the first prep to offer Kentucky Derby points on a 50-20-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers.

The only colt to complete the Risen Star-Kentucky Derby double was Mandaloun, who was second across the wire in the 2021 Kentucky Derby but elevated to first when Medina Spirit was disqualified. It still has been a productive race. Last year Epicenter ran second in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Risen Star. Among other winners of the Fair Grounds race, Gun Runner was third in the 2016 Derby, Mucho Macho Man was third in the 2011 Derby, Run Dusty Run was second in the 1977 Derby, and Master Derby was fourth in the 1975 Kentucky Derby.

The weather in New Orleans is expected to be sunny and cool, so the track should be fast. The Risen Star is the 13th and final race on the card with post time Saturday at 7:14 p.m. EST.

Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders. 

Final thoughts

Laurie:  In the last decade, all Risen Star winners placed first through fourth in their last races, and all except one gained ground in the stretch, a good indicator for longer distances. All but one had started the previous month.

Pacesetters and pressers on the outside fare the best in the Risen Star. Only three from posts 1-5 won. The Risen Star is a good betting race; only two favorites won have won in 10 years.

Five or six contestants have a legitimate shot of hitting the board. I’m looking for a pacesetter or presser who hit the board in his previous start while lengthening his lead or gained ground and isn’t the favorite. 

Ashley: I love when we get a full field for a Derby prep, especially when it draws a competitive field like the Risen Star did. Several of the top contenders exit either the Lecomte or the optional claimer on the Lecomte undercard. Lecomte winner Instant Coffee isn’t running back in this spot, leaving runner-up Two Phil’s to represent that race.

Both races were contested at 1 1/16 miles, and the final time for the Lecomte was just a smidge faster, 1:45.12 vs. Determinedly’s 1:45.26. Instant Coffee won by 2 1/2 lengths, so Two Phil’s final time was closer to that of Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest.

There are a lot of questions to answer, too. Can Victory Formation overcome his outside draw? Will Harlocap’s form transfer from Baffert to Asmussen? Is Curly Jack cranked up to win his 2023 debut? Victory Formation has a tough row to hoe, and I don’t see him stretching his win streak to four.

If last year was any indication, Harlocap’s form should hold for at least this race. Last year, horses formerly trained by Baffert dominated in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in their first start for another trainer.

Curly Jack should be in good form as it’s already mid-February, although a win here isn’t absolutely necessary as the colt is sixth on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

The answer to life, the universe and everything? 42. The answer to the Risen Star? The other Brad Cox.