Heat vs. Celtics Game 3 odds, expert picks: Can Jimmy Butler’s team go up 3-0?

Since 1984, and in the 2-2-1-1-1 format, there have been 248 instances in which a series started with a team losing the first two games. Only 22 teams were able to come back and win the series. How about for teams that lost the first two games at home like the Celtics? Four of 25 teams (16%) were able to accomplish the feat.

Yikes.

But there’s hope for Boston fans. The San Antonio Spurs had a 14% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and they struck gold.

In addition, the Celtics are a really good team. They were one of the most balanced teams in the regular season and won 57 games for a reason.

These are the playoffs, though, and the Heat are scorching right now, so adjustments, intensity and performances all need to be ratcheted up. Or else the Celtics will be down 0-3 and in 110 of those instances, no team has ever been able to recover.

During the NBA Playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NBA coverage is linked below the picks.

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No. 8 Heat vs. No. 2 Celtics

8:30 p.m. ET on TNT

What are the odds for the Heat vs. Celtics?

Series: Heat lead 2-0

Series odds: Heat -185, Celtics +150

In the first two games of this series, Jimmy Butler is averaging a ridiculous 31 points, 6.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 4.5 steals while shooting 48 percent from the field, 40 percent from downtown and 92 percent from the line.

He truly has been a maestro and it will be interesting to see if the Boston coaching staff can come up with the necessary adjustments because, in
Game 1, the Heat shot a blistering 16-of-31 from downtown. In Game 2, the Celtics adjusted by staying attached to the 3-point threats, limiting them to 9-of-26 from beyond the arc.

It didn’t matter to Butler. He shot 12-of-25 from the field in both games while stuffing the stat sheet with goodies in every statistical category.

Bam Adebayo grabbed 17 rebounds, as the Heat outrebounded the Celtics, 45-35, in Game 2. He also dished out nine assists to go along with 22 points.

The one thing I learned from watching GI Joe as a kid is that you must cut off the head of the snake in order to achieve victory. While Adebayo is a great player and the Heat role players are tough and perform their jobs admirably, Miami goes as Jimmy Butler goes.

Boston has too much talent and can play multiple styles, so I expect some interesting adjustments to be displayed tonight. Whether they win or lose remains to be seen, but I expect a spirited effort at least.

If Miami takes care of business at home, then it’s time to cue up the Glenn Frey…”The Heat Is On.”