Heat vs. Hawks odds, prediction, time: 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament picks, April 11 best bets from proven model
The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks will battle for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference as they face off in an NBA Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday. The Heat went 44-38 in the regular season, with a 27-14 mark at home, while the Hawks were 41-41 in the 2022-23 NBA season, with a 17-24 road record. Miami won three of four regular-season contests, with all four games decided by eight or fewer points. Kyle Lowry (knee) is questionable for the Heat, while Atlanta has no injuries to report.
The winner will punch their ticket into the 2023 NBA Playoffs, and tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from Kaseya Center. Miami is a 5-point favorite in the latest Hawks vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is 227. Before locking in any Heat vs. Hawks picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the 2023 NBA Play-in Tournament a stunning 71-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Hawks vs. Heat:
- Hawks vs. Heat: Miami -5
- Hawks vs. Heat over/under: 227 points
- Hawks vs. Heat money line: Miami -235, Atlanta +192
- ATL: Over is 4-0-1 in Hawks' last five overall
- MIA: Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on one day of rest
Featured Game| Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
Why the Heat can cover
Miami has one of the league's stingiest defenses, ranking second in the NBA in points allowed and third in turnovers forced. The Heat held Atlanta to 114 points per game in the regular season, which is 4.7 fewer points than what the Hawks averaged against everyone else. Miami is led on that end by Jimmy Butler, whose 1.8 steals ranked second in the NBA, and Bam Adebayo, who has made the last three All-Defensive teams.
Atlanta also has several defensive deficiencies that Miami can exploit, including a unit that ranks 25th in field goal percentage allowed and 26th in points allowed. The Hawks defense has also gotten worse as the season has progressed as it's given up 124.1 PPG over its last 15 contests. And even though this isn't a playoff game, it will have a playoff-like atmosphere, and Hawks star Trae Young struggled in the postseason against Miami last year. Young averaged just 15.4 points with 6.2 turnovers per game, so Miami clearly knows how to best defend him.
Why the Hawks can cover
Guard Dejounte Murray has a combination of athleticism and length to an effective force. Murray scans the floor well as a facilitator and consistently causes havoc as a defender. The 26-year-old averages 20.5 points, 6.1 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. In the March 28 contest against the Cleveland Cavaliers, he had 29 points, five assists, and two steals.
Center Clint Capela is an athletic, rim-running big who constantly hovers around the rim and takes efficient shots. The 28-year-old owns terrific strength and power at the point of attack. Capela puts up 12.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, and shoots 65% from the field. On April 4 versus the Chicago Bulls, he supplied 13 points and 14 boards.
How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 228 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can get the model's picks at SportsLine.
