Heat vs. Knicks prediction and odds for Thursday, Feb. 2 (Fade Knicks)

The New York Knicks are two games back of the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference heading into the first matchup between these teams this season.

The Knicks have struggled mightily at home in the 2022-23 season, going 9-15-2 against the spread and just 12-14 straight up. The team has lost back-to-back games to fall to 27-25 on the season.

Meanwhile, Miami is in arguably its best stretch of the season, winning seven of its last 10 games. The Heat have really turned things around with Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo and Jimmy Butler getting healthy, but it looks like Oladipo (doubtful) and Gabe Vincent (questionable) could miss this game.

The Knicks are down big man Mitchell Robinson, and that has really hurt their defense. Since Robinson went down, the Knicks rank 27th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for this Eastern Conference matchup:

Heat vs. Knicks odds, spread and total

Heat vs. Knicks prediction and pick

The Heat are playing better basketball than the Knicks right now, and I like them to win this game outright since New York struggles so much at Madison Square Garden.

Miami has struggled ATS all season long, but the Heat play elite defense, ranking No. 5 in the league in defensive rating.

Both of these teams play at a slow pace, but New York’s struggles on the defensive end as of late concern me, especially against an All-Star caliber big man like Bam Adebayo.

Jericho Sims and Isaiah Hartenstein are going to have their hands full with Adebayo, and Miami has had the Knicks’ number in the Tom Thibodeau era, winning five of the six matchups between the teams.

The Heat are showing they are a playoff team after a slow start to the 2022-23 season, and the Knicks have shown us time and time again that they can’t win or cover at home. Bet Miami as this small price.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.