Heat vs Lakers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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03 January 2024

Heat vs Lakers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

While the Lakers are floundering, the Heat might finally be feeling Jimmy Butler's extended absence after losing by 17 to the Clippers on this West Coast swing. L.A. needs a win and is poised to capitalize on Miami's deficiences.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Lakers are going through it, dropping seven of their last nine games entering play today. Now, they’ll have to find a way to solve a tough Miami Heat defense that has claimed several big victims over the last couple of weeks.

Can L.A. capitalize on Jimmy Butler's absence and pick up a much-needed win as a six-point home favorite in the NBA odds?

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview and NBA picks for Heat vs. Lakers on Wednesday, January 3.

Heat vs Lakers odds

Heat vs Lakers predictions

First and foremost, let’s get to the injury report here as there are several key names on it. As noted above, Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler will miss another game with a foot issue, and Caleb Martin is unlikely to play as well with a right ankle sprain that’s kept him out the last few contests. For the Los Angeles Lakers, D’Angelo Russell is doubtful with a tailbone contusion, and while LeBron James is technically doubtful with an illness, he's expected to suit up.

The Heat briefly survived when Butler first exited the lineup, winning four straight against some very good teams, but they fell by 17 to the Clippers last time out and have now lost two straight. This is a deep team, but it’s fair to wonder how long these bench players can keep up the production for an offense that has been middling all season.

Miami’s glaring weakness on defense, despite some positive numbers this season, has been at the rim, where it ranks 27th. It’s also struggled a bit to defend the 3-point shot and has made its money by stopping looks in between those two zones. This is troubling considering the Lakers take almost all of their shots within four feet, ranking second in the league in that area.

The Heat’s offense has been a bit better over the last 10 games, but it still grades out as average, and the Lakers’ excellent defense should do its job to earn them a much-needed win. The absences of Butler and Martin hurt this team significantly around the perimeter, and for a team that has already had issues stopping the three, that should make a big difference. The Lakers may be volatile in that area, but they’re capable of capitalizing on a mismatch like this at home where they’ve shot much better from beyond the arc.

My best bet: Lakers -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

Heat vs Lakers same-game parlay

Lakers -6

LeBron James Over 27.5 points

Bam Adebayo 10+ rebounds

The Heat have been vulnerable defending at the rim, and there’s been no bigger threat for the Lakers down there than James, who takes the ball in and finishes through contact better than most in the world. He went for 30 points the last time he faced off against his former team this season and now has the added benefit of facing a Heat squad that won’t have Butler or Martin to defend him.

James has been steady in the scoring department of late, going for a combined 60 points in his last two games, and while I’d love to call another 30-piece for James, this is the safer route to go.

Finally, while you might think there’s an advantage to be had here for the Lakers on the glass, I’d like to point out that the Heat are just outside the Top 10 in rebounding over the last 10 games while the Lakers remain right around the bottom of the league. There’s been more of an onus on Bam Adebayo to step up, and he’s answered the bell with some big games in the last couple of weeks. He’s averaging 13.6 rebounds over his past five, and again I’ll play it safe here and ask him to collect 10 boards, which is something he’s done in all of those games.

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Heat vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis

At first glance, this game screams Under to me, but that’s true about almost every Lakers game. They’ve been a poor team offensively all season long, and their defense has dominated on countless occasions. The Heat are hurting offensively without some key members, and they’ve already been pretty average on that end.

With that said, the Lakers have ranked fifth in pace over the last 10 games in a concerted effort to play even more transition basketball, and with the Heat’s issues defending the three, this total could get very interesting. The Under has been a hot bet when the Lakers have been favored this season, but it’s also hard to ignore that the Over has hit in six of their last seven games. With that, I think the Over is very much the play here.

A strong 62% of the bets and 65% of the cash are on the Over here at DraftKings, while the Lakers have seemingly attracted some sharp money with 45% of the bets on the home team to cover here and a solid 58% of the cash.