Heat vs. Nuggets predictions: NBA Finals player prop picks for Game 5

The 2023 Finals are almost over, so there are only a few NBA games left to bet on until late October.

What a shame.

But let’s take advantage of what little time we have left.

You can only bet sides and totals in so many ways, but there are far more betting opportunities in the player prop market.

Here are my two favorite player props for Game 5:

Heat vs. Nuggets player props

Jamal Murray Over 8.5 assists (+100, BetMGM)

Jamal Murray is turning into a superstar before our eyes, and it’s because he’s beginning to move past his scoring-only role.

Murray has become a significant playmaker for the Nuggets. He’s now the primary ball-handler in the pick-and-roll with Nikola Jokic and is using his drive-and-kick power to hit spot-up shooters on the perimeter (Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr.).

As a result, Murray is racking up assists. He’s recorded at least 10 in all four games of these NBA Finals, including a playoff-high 12 in Game 4.

Murray has a significant assist floor thanks to sets with Jokic — averaging over six assists per game alone to Jokic — but also has a high assist floor thanks to perimeter shooters.

Per Joe Dellera of The Action Network, Murray is averaging over 18 potential assists per game during this series, and some poor shooting is actually holding his numbers down.

I’m banking on Murray recording double-digit assists in every game for the remainder of the series, so I’ll happily bet Over 8.5 assists for Game 4.

Jimmy Butler Under 27.5 points (-122, FanDuel)

When he’s 100 percent, Jimmy Butler is a two-way force. He can score from all three levels and loves to attack undersized defenders at the rim.

Unfortunately, Butler isn’t currently at 100 percent. Since tweaking his ankle in Game 1 against the Knicks, he’s stayed Under 26.5 points in nine of 14 games, averaging 23.9 points per game on .426/.311/.845 shooting splits.

Butler is not his usual self, and I believe the injury is part of that.

However, Denver has also adjusted defensively to Butler.

First, the Nuggets have done a great job keeping Butler out of the paint.

Throughout the regular season and playoffs, the Heat superstar averages over 10 field-goal attempts per game within 10 feet of the basket, but that number is down to 8.5 during these Finals.

Second, the Nuggets are defending without fouling, limiting Butler’s free-throw attempts.

After averaging around nine free-throw attempts per game during the regular season, he’s managed only 20 in his four Finals games.

Third, and finally, Denver is forcing Butler to pass out of over 50 percent of his drives, per Prop Bet Guy of The Action Network.

That number was closer to a third in the first three playoff rounds.

If the Heat are going to win Game 5, they’ll need to rely on hot shooting from role players.

Butler might play a role with his playmaking and facilitating, but I doubt his scoring will be a factor.

Given he continues to score in the low-20s, I’ll happily bank on Under 26.5 points from Butler on Monday.