Hofstra vs. Duke prediction: College basketball odds, pick, bets

Unfortunately, it’s a light week of college basketball with only a few marquee matchups.

But this Hofstra vs. Duke matchup might fly under the radar. 

The Pride are among the most dangerous mid-major teams. Even after losing top-flight scorer Aaron Estrada last season, head coach Speedy Claxton hasn’t lost a beat. 

But it’s near impossible to walk into Cameron Indoor and beat the Blue Devils as double-digit ‘dogs. 

That said, I like Hofstra’s chances to keep it close Tuesday night, and I’m willing to catch over 15 with the Pride in this spot. 

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

I don’t mind fading Duke in this spot. 

The Blue Devils could come out a tad sleepy coming off a win Saturday and with an eight-day break on deck before facing Baylor in Madison Square Garden next Wednesday. 

Conversely, Hofstra dropped a tough home game to Saint Louis on Saturday, blowing a double-digit lead mostly because the Billikens couldn’t miss from deep (13-for-29 from 3, 44.8%). 

ShotQuality projected that game as a four-point analytical win for Hofstra, based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, suggesting the Pride were unlucky to drop that one and due for some positive regression. 

Claxton’s offense is fun to watch. 

The Pride run loads of on- and off-ball screens for uber-tough shot-makers like Thomas (23.6 PPG, 42% from 3) and Jaquan Carlos (11.2 PPG, 40% from 3).

Meanwhile, Darlinstone Dunbar (17.7 PPG) is among the most effective cutters in the country (1.58 PPP, 89th percentile). 

Duke’s ball-screen defense can be sketchy, both on- and off-ball, especially when Jeremy Roach is off the floor. Same with the Devils’ cutting defense.

Things could get really bad if Tyrese Proctor is ruled out for this game. He’s currently listed as “questionable” for Tuesday night’s matchup.

Hofstra ranks in the top 30 nationally in 3-point rate and top 15 in percentage of points scored from 3. Meanwhile, Duke ranks 200th in 3-point rate allowed.

The Blue Devils will let the Pride fire away, and I think Claxton’s scheme will play in Cameron.

On the other end of the floor, stopping Duke is about stopping superstar big man Kyle Filipowski. The NBA prospect will cook you if you don’t have a steady interior defensive presence.

However, Hofstra’s big man, Jacco Fritz, has become that steady interior defensive presence, allowing just 0.81 post-up PPP on post-up opportunities (61st percentile).

Behind him, the Pride rank in the top 15 nationally in near-proximity field goal percentage allowed (50.4%) and top 50 in ball-screen roll-man PPP allowed (0.78). 

On paper, Hofstra can compete with Duke on both ends of the floor, and I love the situational spot. 

However, I do have two worries. 

If Fritz gets into foul trouble early or the Pride aren’t making their usual tough shots, Filipowski and Duke’s overall talent and athleticism will turn this matchup into a bloodbath. 

That said, The Action Network’s PRO model projects Hofstra as only a seven-point underdog Tuesday in Durham, giving us too much value against the market to not take a shot. 

Plus, Hofstra’s slow-paced style of play (264th nationally in tempo) should keep possessions down, making it easier for the big ‘dog to keep the game from getting out of hand. 

Hofstra +15.5 (-110) at BetMGM | Play to +15