Horse racing analysis: Timeform's top middle-distance horses of 2021
Three-year-olds
A ‘top-class’ horse on Timeform’s scale of Flat ratings is defined as one rated 130 or more, and so far this season we’ve been treated to two three-year-old colts reaching that level. To do so, both St Mark’s Basilica (130p) and Adayar (131), already established as leading members of their own generation as classic winners, had to beat high-class older rivals to win two of the top middle-distance contests of the summer, the Eclipse and King George respectively.
Having been beaten in both his trials, Adayar left those efforts behind with an impressive Derby win by four and a half lengths from Mojo Star (118), looking as good as any winner of the race since Golden Horn in 2015 who went on to win the Arc later that season. Longchamp is now the target for Adayar after he famously became the first colt to complete the Derby-King George double since his own grandsire Galileo 20 years earlier. With speed, stamina and a really willing attitude to go with his considerable ability, he looks the one to beat in the Arc.
St Mark’s Basilica was an earlier developer, topping his generation at two by winning the Dewhurst, but he’s trained on splendidly to be unbeaten in three starts this season, completing the French Guineas/Derby double by winning the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly and then running out a decisive winner of the Eclipse.
The suspicion is that St Mark’s Basilica has a still better performance in him, and that could come in just a few weeks’ time in the Juddmonte International, with the Irish Champion Stakes no doubt high on his agenda too. A clash between St Mark’s Basilica and Adayar would be fascinating, but perhaps unlikely as things stand, given that the pair look very well suited by the different distances over which they’ve been excelling.
While Adayar and St Mark’s Basilica are the standout three-year-old colts, both Godolphin and Ballydoyle have other leading members of the classic generation. In fact, Dante winner Hurricane Lane (123p) looked Charlie Appleby’s main Epsom hope going into the Derby.
Beaten almost eight lengths into third behind Adayar, that’s his only defeat in five starts this year as he has since won both the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris to put himself on course for the St Leger. While he got up late to beat Lone Eagle (121) narrowly at the Curragh, Hurricane Lane was impressive when having much more to spare at Longchamp, his six-length win the widest margin in the Grand Prix de Paris for more than thirty years.
Derby favourite Bolshoi Ballet (123) was Aidan O’Brien’s sole runner in the race but he had excuses in finishing a long way behind Adayar in seventh. He too, though, has bounced back since with a game win in the Belmont Derby and goes for another ‘American Derby’, the Saratoga version, this weekend.
While Bolshoi Ballet disappointed at Epsom, stable-companion Snowfall (123) was a revelation in winning the Oaks the day before by 16 lengths on soft going and accomplished a simple task by another wide margin when following up in the Irish Oaks on better ground. She’s odds on for the Yorkshire Oaks later this month and is potentially Adayar’s chief three-year-old rival in the Arc, a race won by Found, a sister to Snowfall’s dam.
Older horses
Timeform’s rankings for older horses over middle distances are headed by Mishriff (129) who had a lucrative campaign in the Middle East early in the year, showing his versatility with wins in the Saudi Cup over nine furlongs on dirt and then beating Japan’s Arc-bound mare Chrono Genesis (122) in the Dubai Sheema Classic on turf over a mile and a half.
Back in Britain this summer, Mishriff has finished behind both top three-year-olds in the Eclipse and King George. He probably wasn’t fully wound up when third to St Mark’s Basilica at Sandown, but he was at the top of his game three weeks later when going down by a length and three quarters to Adayar at Ascot. He now renews rivalry with St Mark’s Basilica in the Juddmonte International where things out to be closer between them, though it would probably take a career best from Mishriff to reverse the Eclipse form.
Mishriff’s stablemate Lord North (128) also won on the Dubai World Cup card and, while he hasn’t been seen out since March (reportedly missed the Eclipse with a throat infection), last season’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner holds an entry in the Champion Stakes in which he disappointed last year. That race will no doubt be the aim for the geldings who took the first two places at Ascot last October, Addeybb (125) and Skalleti (124).
After another successful Australian campaign earlier this year, Addeybb wasn’t far off his best when runner-up to St Mark’s Basilica in the Eclipse where he had to make his own running. Meanwhile, prolific French winner Skalleti has looked as good as ever in adding another four wins from as many starts this year, including Group 1 successes the last twice in the Prix d’Ispahan and the Bayerisches Zuchtrennen.
With her sex allowance factored in, four-year-old filly Love (125) is right up with the top older horses on her very best form. Winner of the 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks at three, Love returned with a game win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. While she didn’t need to be at her best there, she didn’t take the expected step forward when sent off favourite for the King George, finishing third and giving the impression she was feeling the firm ground. Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Audarya (120) also made her reappearance in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, but after making Love work for that success, she too disappointed next time under softer conditions in the Nassau Stakes which went to Lady Bowthorpe (120).
Tarnawa (125) also enjoyed an unbeaten 2020 campaign which culminated in a Breeders’ Cup Turf victory, and with the focus of her campaign on the autumn again, and a possible Arc bid, she made a belated but successful return to action in preparation for bigger things in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown.
Another female on course for the Arc is Wonderful Tonight (122+) who missed the King George because of the firm ground but had her favoured underfoot conditions when accomplishing an easier task in the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood. That was her fifth win from her last six starts and followed an impressive return in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot where she beat the subsequent Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud winner Broome (123).
With wins in the Grand Prix de Paris and Hong Kong Vase late last year, Mogul (125), stablemate of Love and Broome, was expected to be another contender for the top middle-distance prizes among Ballydoyle’s older horses but he hasn’t been close to his best this season, running poorly on soft ground in the Coronation Cup when last seen. That was won by Pyledriver (126), another who hasn’t been out since, though he’s said to be over the minor setback that kept him out of the King George and could take on St Mark’s Basilica and Mishriff at York en route to the Arc.
If there were any Arc hopes for Al Aasy (126) they’re now over following his recent gelding operation, and after starting the season so impressively with a couple of Group 3 successes at Newbury, he has a bit to prove now after being outbattled, admittedly by notably game rivals both times, in his last couple of starts behind Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup and Sir Ron Priestley (123) – who suffered a career-ending injury in the Goodwood Cup - in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes.
One other to mention for the Arc is French colt In Swoop (126) whose neck defeat to Sottsass in last year’s race was a career-best effort on heavy ground. After twice landing the odds in lesser company earlier this year without needing to run anywhere near his best, he never really landed a blow when only fourth to Broome at Saint-Cloud and he might need very testing conditions if he’s to go close at Longchamp again.
