Horse racing tips: Dave Nevison's best bets for Boxing Day

Racing TV

25 December 2022

Horse racing tips: Dave Nevison's best bets for Boxing Day

Top tipster Dave Nevison shares his best bets for Kempton and Wincanton on Boxing Day plus reveals his fancy for the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.

We have an absolutely cracking card to look forward to on day one of the Ladbrokes Christmas Festival at Kempton Boxing Day, and I am firmly in the L’Homme Presse camp for the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase as I loved his win at Newcastle on his return to action, and he impressed me more than Bravemansgame did in the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase.

I am hoping to see Charlie Deutsch produce another of his fantastically judged rides over fences and steer last season’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase winner to victory.

It will be the shock of all shocks if Constitution Hill cannot land the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle, but at least a few have pitched up against him. Best of luck with all your bets on Boxing Day, and please remember to gamble responsibly.

Was an expensive purchase after winning an Irish point-to-point and it is only since he has been switched to fences that he has looked like he might justify his price tag one day.

Failing to sparkle over hurdles did mean that he started life over fences off a low mark and he won his first over fences off a rating of 95. His most recent win this month was off a mark of 105, and he certainly looks capable of better, so a rating of 109 should be well within range.

The key to his improvement has certainly been his jumping and he has looked very proficient on his past three starts. His running style should suit the tight bends of Wincanton very well, too, and if he can stay out of trouble, he should go very well.

Enter the Paddy's Pick 5 competition below - there's £100,000 up for grabs! ��

West Orchard is currently chalked up at 16-1 but might be worth chancing in this big field. He races off a rating of 84 here but showed enough on both of his outings this season to suggest he is slowly getting his act together.

I believe he has been campaigned over the wrong trip for most of his career, too, as he’s appeared to have had nothing left at the end of his races plus has dropped away tamely.

He received a wind operation ahead of this season and showed a little more last time out when fading into fourth over this track, so should be suited by the drop in trip.

As well as being bottom weight, he has the excellent Freddie Gingell taking 7lb off, and I think he has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive at this level.

This is a real step up in grade, but Don Alvaro has seriously impressed in the jumping department on his past two starts at Wincanton and obviously gets on very well with talented conditional Angus Cheleda.

Wincanton is a track that takes some jumping, and is right-handed, so the selection should be able to transfer his ability to Kempton easily enough.

He carries a lower weight now he moves up into this higher grade, but he made such an impression on his latest outings that I would have fancied him to go close off a higher mark in this contest.

If any further rain arrives ahead of Boxing Day, his win on heavy ground at Taunton last season reassures me that will be no issue.

Dan Skelton’s Grey Dawning might be one of the gambles over the Christmas period as he could be thrown in here.

However, in a 15-runner race where bookies will be offering four, or even five places, I am happy to take a chance on Whatsupwithyou hitting the frame.

Ben Pauling has been in cracking form all season and this eight-year-old races off the same rating he won off on his penultimate outing.

He looks to have been primed for this race, and has headgear applied here, plus Pauling is employing one of the best 7lb claimers riding this season.

It is fair to say Whatsupwithyou might not be absolutely willing to pull everything out in a finish, but he will get a race run to suit and has plenty ability. He usually sneaks a place, at least, and looks worth chancing at double-figure odds.