Hot and Cold NHL Betting Teams: Moneyline and ATS 11/8/2023

As we start another week filled with hockey, let’s take a look at some trends that have been established through teams’ first 10-12 games. Vegas and Vancouver, Dallas and Colorado, NYR and New Jersey, and Boston and Detroit find themselves at the top of their respective divisions at this point in the season, while teams like San Jose, Edmonton, and Calgary could not have imagined a worse start. The Oilers might be bad, but even I say that with a laugh because surely Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl figure it out… right? We have all season to worry about division races and underperformers, so lets take a look at where the money has been made and lost so far this season.

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Here is the first edition of the teams riding a hot streak:

Money on the Moneyline

To date, the best team in each conference last year has found themselves back on top again this season. Vegas and Boston are leading the way with the best records in the league.

Vegas Golden Knights – 11-1-1 Overall

The defending champions have not missed a beat. After an incredible season a year ago, Vegas is back to dominating the rest of the league. They rank in the top five in the NHL in G, GF/G, GA/G, SV% and 6th in PK%. They have scored less than four goals in just four of their first 13 games. They are just one contest removed from dominating another Western Conference titan, as they handled Colorado in a 7-0 thrashing. They have been dominating their competition as they are winning their games by an average of 1.85 goals per game. Domination. That’s quite the safety net if you just need a win. The goalies deserve the bulk of the credit. The Knights have allowed more than three goals in a game just two times, the only two times they have fallen so far this season. Adin Hill has allowed 1.81 GA/G in his seven starts while he and Thompson have an elite .931 SV%.

The next 10 games for Vegas don’t look to be too overwhelming with only the Kings, @ Stars, @ Penguins forecasting to show much resistance. Vegas has been and will continue to be the favorite in the majority of their games and have very favorable matchups in seven of their next 10 games.

Boston Bruins – 10-1-1 Overall

There have been plenty of goalie hugs again to start the season with the Bruins winning nine of their first 12. This comes as a bit of a surprise as the Bruins lost a lot of their production from a year ago, but they have seemingly filled those holes and rather fast. They have allowed the least number of goals this season and have a +16-goal differential through the first month of the season. The Bruins have only scored 39 times this season, but their pesky defensive play style and dominant goal tending have kept them in the win column. Boston leads the NHL in GA/G, SV%, and in PK%. They are the only team in the league allowing less than two goals per game. The two losses on the year came when Linus Ullmark allowed four goals or more, but both were just one goal losses.

Boston has been equally as dominant on the road as they have been on home ice and their next four games don’t appear to be super challenging as they face Montreal twice, host the Isles, and travel to Buffalo. Boston has shown they are still one of the best teams in the NHL and their goaltending has been exceptional once again. The games may be closer than you like, but the Bruins are always finding ways to pull out the W night in and night out.

Covering the bills ATS

Vancouver Canucks – 11-1 ATS

The Canucks have been very impressive to start the season and have covered 11 of their first 12 contests. They have a league leading +30 goal differential this season and have been winning their games by an average of 2.5 goals per game. That’s plenty of wiggle room to sneak out a cover. Breaking it down more, their three losses have been by a combined four goals (1.33/G) while in their nine wins they have dominated opponents winning by an average of 3.78 goals per game.

Their 54 goals lead the league and they also rank in the top three in the league in A, GA/G, SV%, and rank fourth in PP%. Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Quinn Hughes are all in the top five in the league in points, while G Thatcher Demko is 5th in the NHL in GA/G (1.61) and carries a SV% of .948, which is good for third best of the leagues netminders. Star power in all aspects of the game. Vancouver is a surprise team this season and though they will likely cool off to an extent, they have been comfortably winning games to start the season. Seven of their next 11 games are on the road, however they do play the Sharks twice which is free money with how bad the Sharks are.

Anaheim Ducks – 9-3 ATS

In another surprise, the Ducks rank second in the NHL in performance ATS, covering nine of their 12 games. The first two games they failed to cover came against the two best teams in the league, Boston and Vegas. Their 9-3 start ATS can be credited to their current six game outright win streak, after an expected 1-4 start. Now what we must all remember is that everything in life, especially sports, regresses to the mean. Just look at the Minnesota Vikings from last season to this season. The Ducks have managed this success with more than half of their games being one goal differences. Mason McTavish and Frank Vatrano have had fast starts as the two have combined for 15 of the 37 Anaheim goals so far, but they will surely cool off as will the Ducks as a whole. This is still one of the worst teams in the league and this is not a trend to take comfort in.

Their netminding duo has been surprisingly solid as Lukas Dostal and John Gibson have been keeping their team in the game every single night. Four of their next six games are against playoff caliber opponents so this trend could take a hit, but it’s been quite the ride to start the season.

Here is the first edition of the teams riding a cold streak:

They can’t win and they can’t cover, it’s best to stay away altogether.

San Jose Sharks – 1-10-1 Overall, 2-10 ATS

To the five remaining loyal Sharks fans, I am sorry. Your Sharks are off to not only one of the most horrific starts in the history of hockey, but they are also off to one of the most horrific starts in the history of organized sports. The Sharks have managed just 14 goals this season. Auston Matthews has 13… They have allowed 56 goals thus far that’s more than Vegas and Vancouver have allowed, combined. I hate to kick someone while they’re down but, Sharks fans if you are still reading this, Tomas Hertl leads your team in points with seven and he will be traded at some point this season. Every team in the league will be expecting wins when they see the Sharks on their upcoming schedule. Their only cover came in a shootout loss to the Avs. The Sharks are losing their games by an average of 3.91 goals per game. Opponent covers are free money at this point, this isn’t an NHL team.

Edmonton Oilers – 2-8-1 Overall, 2-9 ATS

Now for the Oilers, this is surprising. They have the best duo in McDavid an Draisaitl, but the success just hasn’t been there. They have scored just 29 goals in their first 11 games. They have a new nemesis in divisional opponent Vancouver, as the Canucks have bested the Oilers in all three games this season by a combined score of 18-6. The goal tending is atrocious so far as neither Stuart Skinner nor Jack Campbell have found any success. They allow a combined 4.27 GA/G and have an abysmal .864 SV%. We knew this was a weak spot, but it appears even weaker when they are not averaging more than 3 GF/G which we would think should be relatively easy for a squad with the aforementioned dynamic duo and complimentary pieces like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evan Bouchard.

Edmonton is in desperate need of a turnaround, but six of their next eight games are on the road and include playoff caliber teams in Seattle, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina. They do have the Sharks on deck next, so they should start the turnaround 1-0 with a big tune up win as they try and climb their way to the top of the division where this team belongs.

Honorable Mentions:

To add to the Pacific Division woes, the Calgary Flames have been an incredibly underwhelming team so far as they are just 4-7-1 overall and a lowly 4-8 ATS. Calgary finally found a spark again as they ended a six-game losing skid with a win in Seattle last time out. The Flames are 4-0 in games where they record at least four goals and 0-8 in the games they fail to reach the four-goal mark. The offense needs to get going for Calgary in order for them to win games. And as mentioned in the Friday Roundup article, the Devils have been winning games, but have covered in just three of their 12 contests. Their +1-goal differential is a curiously low number for a team that is 7-4-1 overall. New Jersey has found themselves in one goal games in six of their 12 overall games and are 4-2 in the one goal games. Remember for those of you numbers nerds, everything regresses to the mean. This is a good Devils team, but they are a few bad bounces away from looking like a .500 club to start the year.

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