How (and why) Arizona and Corbin Carroll struck a record-breaking extension

PHOENIX — This past December in San Diego, Amiel Sawdaye and Joe Urbon stepped out into the California sunshine and took a walk. Four months later, what began with that leisurely stroll at the winter meetings culminated in a record-breaking and headline-making contract.

It was during that walk that Sawdaye, an assistant general manager with the Diamondbacks, floated an idea to Urbon, an agent at CAA. The Diamondbacks, Sawdaye told him, were interested in talking about a long-term contract with top prospect Corbin Carroll, who’d rocketed through the minors to make his big-league debut in late August. Urbon was Carroll’s agent. Would they be interested as well?

“I said, ‘Absolutely,'” Urbon said. “That’s when it started.”

When it ended it was Sunday at Salt River Fields, where Carroll and the Diamondbacks officially inked an eight-year, $111 million deal that could swell to nine years and $154 million if a club option and several escalator clauses are exercised. It’s a commitment newsworthy for its size — it is the most money the Diamondbacks have ever guaranteed any player in an extension — and especially for its timing. Carroll, though universally lauded by evaluators, has spent only 38 days in the majors.

So while the walk that marked its starting point might have been easy, the process of reaching a deal wasn’t. Nine-figure deals don’t just happen for rookies every day, and Urbon said there were times over the last month of negotiations that it seemed like it wouldn’t happen for Carroll, either. Things were “hairy” and “tense” times, the agent said, as he and the Diamondbacks batted around different proposals. The two sides were trying to thread a tiny needle, attempting to meet at a figure and structure that would convince Carroll to pass up the chance at bigger earnings down the road.

“Clubs want to get a great player for as little as they have to pay, and we want to get our great player as much as we can get,” Urbon said. “That is just the fundamental part of the process.”

Given the competing motivations, it’s a process that rarely bears fruit, much less fruit as fat and ripe as Carroll’s new deal. The outfielder’s contract is the first to crest the $100 million mark for a player with fewer than 100 days of big-league service time, surpassing the eight-year, $72 million pact signed midway through last season by Braves outfielder eventual National League Rookie of the Year winner Michael Harris II. Yet as rich as it is, given his lack of big-league experience, it also represents a tradeoff for the 22-year-old Carroll. If he’d put off contract talks and went on to play well — and especially if he won the award Harris claimed last season, as many expect Carroll to do — it would have taken a heck of a lot more to extend him.

Why did the Diamondbacks shell out what for them is an unprecedented contract for a player with so short a track record? Why did Carroll sign now instead of betting on himself and chancing a greater payday down the road? The answer those two questions are related. The Diamondbacks were eager to secure a player they view as a centerpiece of their now-opening contention window. Carroll wanted to remain in Arizona, and he was willing to sacrifice what would have been three free-agent years (for a not-insignificant sum) for an unprecedented payday at the dawn of his career.

“It needed to make sense to both sides in terms of what you’re giving up in terms of risk and leverage,” said Carroll, who was uncommonly involved in the process of his own contract negotiations. “When we got to a place that was a win-win, I thought it was a no-brainer.”

This is how, and why, that no-brainer came together.

Just about every general manager in baseball would love to lock up his or her young stars to early-career extensions.

For one, GMs prize the type of cost-certainty and control that such deals bring. Because those young players are so far away from reaching the open market, they inevitably sacrifice greater earning potential for the security of getting a lot of money now. That tradeoff means those extensions rarely go bad for teams. The Braves are unlikely to regret their deal with Harris, or their $99 million extension with Ronald Acuna Jr. early in his career. Odds are the Pirates won’t be financially hamstrung by the eight-year, $70 million deal they gave Ke’Bryan Hayes.

It’s for that same reason, though, that early-career extensions remain relatively rare. That’s why, despite Carroll’s receptiveness, the Diamondbacks didn’t open talks with high hopes of reaching a deal.

“Our expectations for these things are pretty low,” said Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen. “That’s the way it goes.” But it’s not difficult to see why Hazen and the Diamondbacks would try.

Carroll is a unique talent — fast and smart, surprisingly strong for his size and relentlessly driven. Less than two years ago, he was in a sling, having severely injured his shoulder in just his 49th game in the minors. He hadn’t played above High A. Yet he returned from season-ending surgery as if nothing had interrupted his ascent in the first place. In his first full season, the 21-year-old raked through the top two levels of the minors. In a month-plus in the majors at the end of the year, he posted an .830 OPS and was worth 1.1 bWAR. He’s slotted to be the team’s Opening Day left fielder.

The Diamondbacks have rarely signed players to major deals — their six-year, $206.5 million dalliance with Zack Greinke standing as a notable exception — but if you’re going to hitch yourself to a star-bound rocket, you have to catch it near the ground. Left un-extended, Carroll might have played himself out of Arizona’s price range this season. To lock up phenom Wander Franco roughly 100 days into his big-league career, the Rays committed to 11 years and $182 million. The Mariners didn’t extend outfielder Julio Rodríguez until the tail-end of his Rookie of the Year campaign last season. Rodríguez landed a deal that is worth $210 over 12 years, with the possibility of it growing to 17 years and a whopping $470 million. A team that is willing to commit significant money early can get a relative bargain.

And that’s what Arizona seems to have gotten, in the eyes of rival evaluators. “Seems like a smoking deal for the club,” texted an executive with an American League club. “Barring injury,” said an NL executive, “he’s about as safe a bet as you’ll get for someone with such little big-league time.”

But if it’s such an obvious win for the Diamondbacks, why does it make sense for Carroll? Because he loves the organization, yes, and because it’s hard to turn down $111 million when you’ve barely done anything yet. But there’s another reason, too:

Because Carroll, characteristically attentive to detail, understands exactly what he’s gotten himself into.

As Urbon and the Diamondbacks batted around ideas over the last month, the agent would have regular calls with his client about the process. Some players just want the broad strokes — How much? When do I sign? — but Carroll was locked in. Carroll had studied the deals struck by players in comparable positions to his, and he explored their intricacies with his agent. More than once, he participated in strategy conference calls with CAA staff, a rarity among Urbon’s clients.

“He was treating this as a case study, a business class or a paper he might ultimately write,” Urbon said. “He was asking me questions as if I were a professor teaching him how to do something like this.”

It would indeed make an interesting case study given how few deals of this ilk have been struck. They must simultaneously offer massive paydays to players and long-term bargains to teams. Rodríguez’s deal with the Mariners is endlessly complex, and future deals for young superstars could be just as byzantine.

Urbon said similar and even more novel concepts — structures that have “never been done” — were discussed with the Diamondbacks and ultimately discarded. Instead, the two sides locked in a structure that is similar to Harris’ deal, albeit with a much larger guarantee. First, they agreed upon a sum to replace what Carroll was likely to have earned up through his arbitration years, settling on $50 million. (For comparison, Aaron Judge earned nearly $40 million through his arbitration-eligible seasons. Francisco Lindor earned roughly $52 million.) Then, they had to agree upon how many free-agent years to buy out, and at what price.

The answer was two, with a possibility for a third in the form of a club option. Carroll will make $28 million in both 2029 and 2030. The option for 2031 carries the same salary with a $5 million buyout if not picked up. The average annual value of those years would put Carroll among some of the highest-paid players in the game right now, although by the time those seasons come around, free-agent salaries likely will have ballooned further. That’s why Carroll insisted on a mechanism to allow him to earn more the better he performs.

Based on how Carroll finishes in MVP voting in the first six years of his deal, the value of those last three seasons could increase by a total of $20 million. “That was Corbin’s idea,” the agent said. “He said, ‘I’m willing to take less value in those free-agent years but have the ability to make that up if I earn it.'” It also should be noted that despite his long-term deal, Carroll remains eligible for the pre-arbitration bonus pool created under the new collective bargaining agreement to financially reward players who finish at or near the top of awards races. (Similarly, since Carroll will be on the Opening Day roster, the Diamondbacks still stand to net an extra draft pick if he finishes highly in the race for Rookie of the Year or MVP.)

Even then, should he play that well, Carroll is likely to remain underpaid for his production under the terms of his contract, though he will be on track for a second payday as he hits the open market at 31. He is not unaware of that tradeoff. “If he does become Rookie of the Year or he does outplay it, that’s OK,” Urbon said. “We’re at peace with that.” If he did give up some future earnings, Carroll went in with his eyes wide open. He participated heavily in the negotiations that determined his own future.

“Regardless of how this contract goes,” the prospect said, “I’m going to be happy with my process.”

Across the industry, opinions of Carroll’s deal with the Diamondbacks vary depending on whom you ask. And they vary predictably. Agents with other firms wonder why Carroll jumped on a deal this early. On the team side, one rival evaluator noted the domino effect the extension will have on keeping other young players in the fold. For clubs with their own superlative prospects they’d have interest in extending, he said, “It is less than helpful for a guy with a month in the big leagues to get over $100 million.” Even then, the executive admitted, Carroll is probably worth the money.

At the Diamondbacks’ spring headquarters, though, there was no handwringing. Only smiles, handshakes and hugs. Carroll is the brightest prospect in Arizona’s system, but there are other burgeoning stars making their way to the majors. The Diamondbacks have done a lot of losing over the last several years, and Hazen is impatient for those days to end. Arizona was poised to make strides this year whether Carroll was locked up for the next eight years or not, but Hazen thinks the deal sends an important message to the clubhouse: With an exciting core reaching the majors, the Diamondbacks are committed to keeping it together as long as they can.

“There’s a level of trust that we feel with this player and why we did this,” Hazen said. “That level of trust hopefully will reverberate within the walls of our organization.”

And though Carroll considered his options more soberly than most — like many others have, Urbon described him as a machine — he too was thrilled. Urbon said there were times, even in the last few days, that it seemed like a deal might not happen. But when an agreement was reached, the agent relayed, Carroll ran into Hazen and enveloped the GM in an impromptu hug. “You’ve still got to pass that physical!” the agent reminded him.

Carroll said it wasn’t important to him to break any contract records, only that a deal “had to make sense for me and my circumstances.” This one, he feels, does. He loves the Diamondbacks, and he loves the wave of talent — Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones — coming up behind him. Massive early-career deals may be rare, but they have one common thread: They happen because players really want to be where they are.

“Arizona has been that place for me ever since I got drafted,” Carroll said. “Now to be able to say that’s likely going to continue long into the future, it’s a really good feeling.”