How the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals are expected to play out and cause a seismic shift in global game

After exactly a month of Rugby World Cup action the pool stage is now done and dusted and attentions turn to the knockout phase of the tournament with four fascinating quarter-finals to come next weekend.

The opening stage of the world cup came to an enthralling and dramatic finish on Sunday night as Portugal pulled off a big shock and beat Fiji by a point. Despite the setback, Fiji still squeezed through thanks to a bonus-point defeat to complete the line-up for the quarter-finals, which kick-off next Saturday in Marseille.

Saturday is set to be a huge day as Warren Gatland’s Wales take on Michael Cheika’s Argentina before Ireland battle New Zealand in what is probably the most anticipated fixture of the tournament thus far. On Sunday England take on Fiji and then all eyes will be on another blockbuster as hosts France try to overcome one of the other world cup favourites in South Africa.

Below we take a look at who is likely to progress from each fixture and who will play who in the semi-finals.

Wales v Argentina

Saturday 4pm, Marseille

Despite expectations being fairly low for Wales coming into this tournament, four wins from four - including an impressive mauling of Australia - has changed the mood completely in the Welsh camp and around the country. Losing Taulupe Faletau is a huge blow, but Wales will be quietly confident of making their third Rugby World Cup semi-final under the guidance of Warren Gatland.

Argentina enjoyed good wins against Japan, Chile and Samoa in Pool D, but suffered a disappointing defeat to England in their world cup opener despite their opponents being a man down following a red card for the majority of the game. According to Bet365, Wales should have too much for the Pumas.

Odds: Wales win 4/7; Argentina win 13/8; draw 18/11

Ireland v New Zealand

Saturday 8pm, Paris

One of the most eagerly awaited clashes of the world cup sees the world’s number one team take on the mighty All Blacks. Andy Farrell’s Ireland have long been fancied as the best team at the tournament and many think 2023 could finally be the year when they win rugby’s biggest prize for the first time. Having won all of their games so far - including beating South Africa - expectations have only been heightened during the tournament.

New Zealand, meanwhile, have gone slightly under the radar in this tournament having lost to France in their opening match. However, they scored more than 70 points in all of their remaining pool stage games and many people think they are just beginning to purr at the right time. It should be very tight according to the bookies, but the odds and overall form favours the Irish.

Odds: Ireland to win 8/11; New Zealand to win 5/4; draw 18/1

England v Fiji

Sunday 4pm, Marseille

England have cruised through to the quarter-final stage, beating Argentina, Japan and Chile with plenty to spare and beating Samoa by a point when qualification was already secured. Unfancied coming into the tournament, Steve Borthwick’s side have gone about their business quietly and will fancy their chances of getting to the last four. However, they are yet to play any of the elite nations so it’s difficult to judge exactly where they are in terms of progress under Borthwick.

Fiji remain something of an unknown quantity at this world cup. They were excellent in parts against Wales and could or perhaps should have won the game late on. They then wowed everyone with a 22-15 win over Australia, but then only just beat Georgia and lost to Portugal, so how they fare when it’s do-or-die against England will be fascinating to see. According to the bookies, England will be too strong, but a decent price on an unpredictable Fiji could be tempting for many.

Odds: England to win 1/3; Fiji to win 13/5; draw 22/1

France v South Africa

Sunday 8pm, Paris

Hosts France have impressed at this tournament so far. They beat the All Blacks in their first game, beat Uruguay in their second and followed those results up by hammering Namibia and Italy. They are also set to be bolstered by the expected return of one of the world’s best players - scrum-half Antoine Dupont - who was injured in the Namibia match.

South Africa lost a tightly-contested pool match against Ireland but apart from that have cruised through the other games - beating Scotland, Romania and Tonga to set up this crunch-clash against the hosts. This could be too close to call for many, but the bookies are just shading France, who will of course be backed by a capacity home crowd at the Stade de France.

Odds: France to win 8/11; South Africa to win 5/4; draw 18/1

An all northern hemisphere line-up

If the bookies turn out to be correct with all their predictions, the semi-final line-up during the following weekend would provide a never seen before scenario. It would mean no Australia, South Africa or New Zealand in the semis for the first time ever, providing a match day more familiar with a Six Nations weekend. With the southern hemisphere pretty much dominating rugby since the dawn of the professional era, it would be a truly seismic shift.

Friday, October 20 - Wales v Ireland - 8pm, Paris

Saturday, October 21 - England v France - 8pm, Paris