How to Bet on NFL Games: Betting Tips, Advice & Strategy
The 2022 NFL season begins this week. This NFL Betting Guide explains how to bet on NFL games. It includes the top-10 strategies for betting on the 2022 regular season.
The most-bet NFL games are Sunday Night Football and Monday Night football. Betting on NFL football games is dangerous. You should wait for the right opportunities and bet only an amount that doesn't wipe you out. If you want to grow your bankroll, stick with betting angles that have a positive expected value.
How to bet on NFL games is based on percentages. For moneyline or point-spread bets, stick with a betting spread between one and three units. Under no circumstances should you bet more than five units at a time. Longshots should be bet between a quarter unit and half unit.
The best strategy for NFL betting is to shop for the best line. If you like the Baltimore Ravens -7 against the New York Jets in Week 1, you'd like them even better at -6.5 somewhere else.
The most important numbers to watch when betting the NFL point spread are 3, 6, 7, 10, and 14.
Since 2015, more than 40% of NFL games have ended with a point differential of exactly 3, 6, 7, 10, or 14.
Field goals are worth three points, touchdowns are six points and a successful PAT is seven points. 3, 6, and 7 are the most common winning margins. Numbers 10 and 14 are simply combinations of 3 and7. A +3.5 underdog is a better bet than a +2. 5 underdog. Laying -6.0 points on a favorite is more profitable than laying -7,5 points; half points is the best bet.
Teasers are popular bets that allow bettors to adjust the point spread on their wagers. The most popular of these teasers is the six-pointer.
The three unbreakable rules of teasers are: Always Cross Two Important Numbers, Never Tease Zero and Never Take Totals. The best teaser is either a 7-8-point favorite that gets teased down to -1 or -2.
How to bet on NFL games is based on the fact that fans think the better team will win and they want to see a lot of points. Sportsbooks tend to skew their lines in favor of underdogs and favorites.
The math on parlays is awful. A two-team parlay with each team priced at -110 offers bettors a payout of +265 at most sportsbooks. The chances of hitting a two team paray are 1 in 4. Parlaying each underdog moneyline of the week for 50 cents hoping to win 30 million dollars is acceptable.
It's best to bet NFL favorites early on and bet underdogs late. The betting public tends to back the favorite. Bettors can get an extra half point or a full point on the point spread if they're patient. The dream scenario is to place a second bet on an underdog and watch the spread soar a few points.
Sportsbooks are run by smart people and the betting public isn't smart.
The NFL game is a betting game. Sportsbooks take wagers that influence the line. When a team opens as a three-point favorite and gets steamed to a five-points favorite, it means the three point spread was wrong.
The sportsbook is trying to make it more attractive to bet on the other team. It's to mitigate their financial risk. Sportsbooks make their money on vig. If a favorite takes a lot of action, it's wise to put money against it.
There are hundreds of ways to bet on NFL games. Once you find a bet you're comfortable making, stick with it. Savvy bettors find angles they like and keep pressing them. The larger the sample size, the better the return on investment.
