How We’re Betting Super Wildcard Weekend: Predictions, Odds, Picks for Every Game
We’ve played 18 weeks of NFL football, and 14 teams remain.
The Baltimore Ravens earned the NFL’s best record and No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, while the San Francisco 49ers notched the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Both get to skip Super Wildcard Weekend, instead preparing to host the lowest-remaining seed in each conference.
As they get some much-needed rest, we NFL gamblers will dive into the six-game Saturday/Sunday/Monday slate.
Let’s quickly discuss each contest, starting with our hometown Philadelphia Eagles, who play at Tampa Bay on Monday night.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers Odds: Buccaneers -3, Over/Under 44
8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
The Eagles are last year’s Vikings.
They lucked into a 10-1 start by winning a flurry of close games despite boasting a mediocre statistical profile and average point differential. They went on to lose five of their final six – the last team to do that and win a postseason game was the 1999 Dolphins.
By weighted DVOA, which weighs recent games heavier than earlier ones, the Eagles are the 21st-best team in the NFL. Since Week 13, they’re 14th in EPA per Play and 31st in EPA per Play allowed.
For the mathematically disinclined, the latter stat ranked second-to-last in the NFL, only ahead of Seattle.
And that’s the big problem for Philly entering the playoffs: the defense is non-existent. The Eagles are the league’s worst third-down defense. The secondary is uber-exploitable – anybody can pass on the Eagles, especially now that Darius Slay and James Bradberry have regressed.
That’s a problem against Baker Mayfield, who is playing the best football of his pro career. He’s been a borderline top-10 quarterback this year, especially in the back half of the season.
But Baker is clearly playing through injury, and that could be deadly for a Bucs offense that can’t run the ball – they rank 28th in Rush Offense DVOA and 29th in Rush Success Rate. They only managed 22 combined points against the Saints and Panthers with a hobbled Mayfield.
Likewise, it looks like Jalen Hurts broke his finger in Week 18, and AJ Brown went down with a knee injury. Are either OK?
Between all the injuries, I lean Under 44. There’s a good chance we have two injured quarterbacks and an injured WR1. Who’s going to move the ball?
Also, the Bucs have a solid red-zone defense, and the Eagles can still win on the defensive line. Both defenses are exploitable, but there are still strengths.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Pick: Under 44
Browns vs Texans Odds: Browns -2.5, Over/Under 44
4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
I think the Browns’ defense is a tad overvalued.
Yes, they were the NFL’s best defense this year. They also faded down the stretch and often struggled on the road. The final three Cleveland games went Over the closing total.
CJ Stroud is spectaclar. Remove the games he missed with injury, and the Texans finished fifth in Pass DVOA. Stroud finished 10th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per Play in the second half.
Houston has a nasty defensive line and arguably the NFL’s best run defense. But the Texans also finished the year 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA and 20th in EPA per Dropback allowed.
On deep passes, Houston allowed the fourth-highest completion percentage (41.6%), second-most yards (1,143) and second-most touchdowns (eight). You can throw it on Houston’s safeties, who didn’t rank highly by Pro Football Focus’s grades.
We know Joe Flacco is a gunslinger, finishing the year with a 9.5 average depth of target and 12 20-or-more-yard completions across five starts. He’s going to sling it downfield and will create explosives.
Don’t believe me? Check out how Week 16 between these two teams panned out.
Flacco completed 27 of 42 passes (64.3%) for 368 yards and three touchdowns on 8.8 yards per attempt. He posted four big-time throws, and the Browns scored 36 points.
Meanwhile, the Texans had to start Davis Mills in that game. He completed only 15 of his 32 attempts but scored twice in a 22-point effort.
The total closed Under 40, but these two combined for 58. I expect more of the same in the Wildcard round, especially with a healthy Stroud under center.
Browns vs Texans Pick: Over 44
Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds: Chiefs -4, Over/Under 44
8 p.m. ET Saturday, Peacock
If they were healthy, I would love to back the Dolphins in this game.
Instead, the Fins will be without their top three edge rushers, and they’re short-handed on the offensive line and in the secondary.
The Dolphins also haven’t played well when stepping up against competition. They went 1-5 against playoff teams with a -91 point differential.
But I’m in no rush to back the Chiefs, whose pathetic wide receiver room has cost them several games this year.
As a favorite or underdog of a field goal or less, Patrick Mahomes has gone 16-8-1 ATS, covering 67% of the time and generating a 28% ROI for backers. This includes both regular-season and playoff games.
If we could get Mahomes under a field goal against a banged-up, warm-weather Miami team heading on the road and into cold weather, I’d back the Chiefs. Sharps know this, so the line has jumped from KC -1.5 to KC -4, making the side a pass for now.
Hopefully, we get enough buy-back on the Fins to hammer Pat and Co.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Pick: Pass | Bet Chiefs at -3 or better
Steelers vs Bills Odds: Bills -10, Over/Under 36
2 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Sorry, but the Steelers have no hope without TJ Watt manning the defensive front.
He’s a game-breaker and the most important player on a usually-elite Steelers defense. But he’ll be on the sidelines this Sunday.
So, the obvious play would be to take the red-hot, ever-undervalued Bills.
But I can’t lay double-digits with Josh Allen because of turnovers. Allen turns the ball over too often to lay big numbers with – look no further than Week 17 against New England, as the Bills would’ve likely covered 12 if he hadn’t thrown a costly interception.
The weather report looks ugly in Buffalo. We’re potentially getting lake-effect snow and consistent winds over 20 MPH. In theory, that helps a big underdog and favors the Under, but the side is too high and the total too low for my liking.
Steelers vs Bills Pick: Pass
Packers vs Cowboys Odds: Cowboys -7.5, Over/Under 50.5
4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Since Week 9, Jordan Love ranks third among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per Play, second in Completion Percentage Over Expectation and second in Pro Football Focus’s Passing grades.
He’s been outstanding.
Even better, Love is unbelievable under pressure. He has 10 touchdowns to one interception when blitzed this season.
The Cowboys don’t blitz a ton, but they generate plenty of pressure and are good in the secondary behind the resurgent Stephon Gilmore.
That said, the Cowboys are vulnerable on middle and deep passes and are due for some early-down regression.
I think Love can continue dealing, even against this elite pass defense. Especially if the Packers keep protecting him – they rank sixth in the NFL in Pro Football Focus’s pass-blocking grades, and the Packers were the fifth-least sacked team (29).
I worry about the Packers’ defense, which isn’t good. And their special teams might be worse (31st in special teams DVOA). Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are playing the best football of their careers.
But I give Matt LaFleur a significant coaching advantage over Mike McCarthy, and winning by two scores should prove impossible if Love deals as I expect him to.
I think the Pack will keep this one close because Love should keep pace with Prescott.
Packers vs Cowboys Pick: Packers +7.5
Rams vs Lions Odds: Rams +3.5, Over/Under 51.5
8 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
I love the Rams.
I adore the Rams in this spot.
Matt Stafford’s offense is humming. The Rams were second in Offense DVOA in the second half. Stafford is dealing, and he has several elite weapons in Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams.
Even better, Sean McVay is an elite offensive mind who can out-scheme anyone.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ pass defense is downright poor. They rank 25th in EPA per Dropback allowed and 29th in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades. Top corner Cam Sutton finished 101st out of 128 qualified cornerbacks in PFF’s grades.
Stafford should light up the Lions’ secondary in the comfy confines of the Ford Field dome on Sunday night.
The Lions should be able to exploit the Rams’ questionable defense, but they screwed themselves by playing all out in Week 18 and losing Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond to injury.
The LaPorta injury is especially concerning. Not only is he among the most productive rookie tight ends in NFL history, but the Rams rank 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA allowed to opposing tight ends. LaPorta could’ve eaten in this game, but now Ben Johnson doesn’t have that edge.
Even worse, the Rams’ rush defense improved down the stretch, which should help against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
As their rush defense improved, L.A. finished the season 7-1, with its only loss coming in overtime on a game-winning punt return against Baltimore, the NFL’s best team
The Rams are dangerous, explosive, and have all the momentum. I think they win outright, handing Detroit one of its most devastating losses – a home playoff one to its former franchise quarterback.
Rams vs Lions Pick: Rams +3.5
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