Illinois State vs. Valparaiso Prediction: Expert Picks, Odds, Stats and Best Bets

The Valparaiso Beacons (6-24, 2-17 MVC) are 5.5-point underdogs as they look to stop a five-game home losing streak when they host the Illinois State Redbirds (15-15, 9-10 MVC) on Sunday, March 3, 2024 at Athletics-Recreation Center. The game airs at 2:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The matchup has an over/under of 137.5.

Illinois State vs. Valparaiso Odds

Illinois State vs. Valparaiso Promo Codes

Game Time and Information

Who Will Win Illinois State vs. Valparaiso?

Illinois State and Valparaiso Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread

When it has played as at least 5.5-point favorites this season, Illinois State is 1-3 against the spread.

Valparaiso is 12-7 against the spread when an underdog by 5.5 points or more this year.

The Redbirds and the Beacons combine to average 3.1 fewer points per game than the total of 137.5 set for this game.

Opponents of the two teams average a combined 5.5 more points per game (143) than this game’s over/under of 137.5 points.

The average point total for Illinois State’s games this season is 3.0 fewer points than the total of 137.5 in this matchup.

Beacons games this year have averaged an over/under of 142.8 points, 5.3 more than the point total in this matchup.

The Redbirds have a 14-15-0 record against the spread this season.

The Beacons’ ATS record is 17-12-0 this year.

Illinois State Stats & Insights

Illinois State scores 66.8 points per game (326th in college basketball) and allows 67.7 (68th in college basketball) for a -28 scoring differential overall.

Illinois State pulls down 35.2 rebounds per game (184th in college basketball) while allowing 32.9 per outing to its opponents. It outrebounds opponents by 2.3 boards per game.

The Redbirds make 6 three-pointers per game (308th in college basketball) at a 29.1% rate (349th in college basketball), compared to the 7.1 per contest their opponents make while shooting 32.8% from deep.

Illinois State ranks 264th in college basketball by averaging 91.3 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 173rd in college basketball, allowing 92.6 points per 100 possessions.

The Redbirds put up 69.1 points per game when playing at home, compared to 65.1 points per game in away games, a difference of four points per contest.

Valparaiso Stats & Insights

Valparaiso puts up 67.6 points per game (320th in college basketball) while allowing 75.3 per outing (279th in college basketball). It has a -231 scoring differential and has been outscored by 7.7 points per game.

Valparaiso ranks 316th in college basketball at 32.8 rebounds per game. That’s 5.9 fewer than the 38.7 its opponents average.

Valparaiso hits 7.3 three-pointers per game (202nd in college basketball), while its opponents have made 7.2 on average.

Valparaiso puts up 87.2 points per 100 possessions (331st in college basketball), while giving up 97.1 points per 100 possessions (301st in college basketball).

The Beacons are putting up more points at home (69.1 per game) than away (65.8).

Illinois State Key Players to Watch

Myles Foster leads the Redbirds in scoring and rebounding, tallying 12.1 points and 8.2 boards per game.

Dalton Banks is Illinois State’s best passer, distributing 3.7 assists per game while scoring 8.6 PPG.

Malachi Poindexter leads the Redbirds in three-point shooting, making an average of 1.3 shots per game from beyond the arc.

The Illinois State steals leader is Banks, who averages one steal per game, while its blocks leader is Foster, who compiles 0.7 rejections per contest.

Valparaiso Key Players to Watch

Isaiah Stafford averages 16.6 points per game and is the top scorer for the Beacons.

The Valparaiso leaders in rebounding and assists are Cooper Schwieger with 5.3 rebounds per game (he also adds 12.7 points and one assist per game) and Darius DeAveiro with 5.5 assists per game (he also tacks on 8.2 points and 3.1 rebounds per game).

Stafford is the most prolific from the three-point line for the Beacons, hitting 1.9 threes per game.

Valparaiso’s leader in steals is Stafford (1.5 per game), and its leader in blocks is Jaxon Edwards (1.3 per game).